It’s no secret that the 49ers and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo have decided simply to wait for the possibility that a starting quarterback with another team will suffer a season-ending injury in training camp or the preseason. That’s the only way the 49ers get real value in trade, and it’s the only way Garoppolo gets anything close to his $25 million compensation package for 2022.
At some point, the music stops. The dance ends. The 49ers will cut Garoppolo in lieu of having his base salary become guaranteed, as a practical matter, if he’s on the Week One roster.
So when will the Niners cry uncle? The rosters cut to 53 on August 30. That’s the most obvious expiration date for the relationship.
But it may not be the actual one. If the 49ers are willing to carry Garoppolo on the 53-man roster, they can continue to hold him and wait for a trade opportunity until the rosters lock for San Francisco’s first regular-season game, at Chicago on Sunday, September 11. That happens at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 10. If the 49ers drop him before then, he gets nothing.
Why wouldn’t they wait as long as they can, if the current game is to hope lightning will strike in another city, in the form of a serious injury to another quarterback? A lot can happen between August 30 and September 10. Especially since there’s a regular-season game on Thursday, September 8.
It all comes down to how committed the 49ers are to the bit. If they’re all in with it, then they’ll keep Garoppolo as long as they can, even if it means reserving a roster spot for a guy who already isn’t on the team, as a practical matter.
Maybe they’ve promised to let him go on August 30. At some point, waiting hurts his ability to find a landing spot in 2022. But if no assurances have been given, the 49ers could be tempted to play the waiting game for as long as they can.
Think of it this way. If they cut him before September 10 and a starter tears an ACL the next day, it would become the stupidest quarterback decision they’ve made in the past five years. And that’s currently a fairly high bar.