PFT’s Week 3 2022 NFL picks

Los Angeles Rams v Arizona Cardinals
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Last week wasn’t great for us. Was it great for anyone who picks games?

Weird outcomes dotted the slate of 16 contests. A 3-0 run in the final prime-time games got me to .500, at 8-8. MDS finished 7-9.

For the year, I’m 17-14-1. MDS is 14-17-1.

This week, we disagree once again on five games. For all picks, scroll away.

Steelers (+4.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Steelers’ defense misses T.J. Watt, and their offense just isn’t very good. The Browns rebound from last week’s shocking loss with a solid home win.

MDS’s pick: Browns 24, Steelers 13.

Florio’s take: Who has a players-only meeting after two games? The Browns, apparently. On a short week, it may be too much to expect the Browns to put the blown opportunity against the Jets behind them.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 20, Browns 14.


Texans (+3) at Bears

MDS’s take: This Texans team has looked better than I was expecting, while the Bears look like they don’t believe in Justin Fields and are calling plays to avoid having to make him do much of anything. I like the Texans in an upset.

MDS’s pick: Texans 17, Bears 14.

Florio’s take: The Bears gave the Packers more of a fight than most expected, with the final score misleading. The Texans’ ability to tie the Colts looked a lot worse after the Colts got goose-egged by the Jaguars.

Florio’s pick: Bears 17, Texans 13.


Raiders (-2) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans are perhaps this year’s biggest disappointment, a No. 1 seed from last year that is looking like a rebuilding team this year. The Raiders get their first win of the season.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 23, Titans 20.

Florio’s take: How are the Raiders favored in this one? They blew a 20-point lead at home. And while the Titans were blown out on Monday night, it was the Bills. In a battle of 0-2 teams where one has a new regime and one doesn’t, I’ll take the one that doesn’t.

Florio’s pick: Titans 24, Raiders 20.


Chiefs (-6.5) at Colts

MDS’s take: The Colts are a mess right now. I have a hard time seeing them even keeping it close against the Chiefs.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, Colts 10.

Florio’s take: The Chiefs once blew a huge lead during a playoff game in Indy. That won’t happen again.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 41, Colts 17.


Bills (-5.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Bills have steamrolled the competition two weeks in a row, and they’ll keep it going against a Miami team that is also 2-0 but isn’t in the same class as Buffalo.

MDS’s pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 17.

Florio’s take: The Buffalo defense should be better equipped to make a stop or two of the Miami offense than the Miami defense will be of the Buffalo offense.

Florio’s pick: Bills 38, Dolphins 31.


Lions (+6) at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Lions’ offense is better than people think, but their secondary will struggle against Justin Jefferson and the Vikings will pull off a narrow win.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 35, Lions 31.

Florio’s take: This has become a sneaky great rivalry, with a couple of barnburners in 2021. The Vikings should be able to win at home. Whichever team prevails, the final score should be close enough for the Lion to cover.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 27, Lions 24.


Ravens (-3) at Patriots

MDS’s take: Lamar Jackson is playing some of his best football right now, and he’ll cruise to a big game in New England.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 31, Patriots 20.

Florio’s take: If Baltimore can get J.K. Dobbins back, the offense would get a major boost. Other than Lamar Jackson, no one is able to generate any real rushing yards for the Ravens. Meanwhile, the New England offense continues to be a work in progress,

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Patriots 14.


Bengals (-4.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: After a rough first couple of weeks, the Bengals will finally get on the board with a high-scoring win against a Jets team with an awful defense.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 38, Jets 27.

Florio’s take: The Bengals are getting desperate. The fact that they were upended by the Jets last year will make it less likely that they take the Jets lightly.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 31, Jets 24.


Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders

MDS’s take: Jalen Hurts vs. Carson Wentz should be a fun matchup, and I like Hurts to get the better end of it and show why the Eagles were wise to make him their franchise quarterback.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 20.

Florio’s take: The Eagles are looking like a team of destiny. That’s something the Commanders haven’t looked like in more than 30 years.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 17.


Saints (-3) at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Panthers’ rebuild just hasn’t taken off under Matt Rhule, and he’s running out of time to turn things around.

MDS’s pick: Saints 17, Panthers 10.

Florio’s take: If Matt Rhule doesn’t win this one, he may not make it to the end of the season. (He may not make it anyway.)

Florio’s pick: Panthers 23, Saints 20.


Jaguars (+7) at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Jaguars have played impressive football for new coach Doug Pederson, and an upset here wouldn’t shock me, but I think they’ll fall just short against Justin Herbert and a good Chargers offense.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Jaguars 27.

Florio’s take: The Jags are on the rise. They’re good enough to keep this one close, and maybe win it.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 20.


Rams (-3.5) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The NFC West looks wide open right now, but in this big game I like the Rams to make a statement that they’re still the best team in the division.

MDS’s pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 17.

Florio’s take: Kyler Murray looks like a different player when he has mobility and is given the green light to use it. In the playoff game against the Rams, he wasn’t healthy. He now is. #LetKylerCook.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 30, Rams 23.


Falcons (+2) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: I don’t have high hopes for the Seahawks this season, but I do see them improving to 2-1 against an overmatched Falcons team.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take: Seattle may not be a great team, but they’re good enough to beat the Falcons at home. If not, Drew Lock time is coming.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 17, Falcons 14.


Packers (+1.5) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Buccaneers’ defense has been excellent so far this season and will play well against Aaron Rodgers in what figures to be a close and low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 17, Packers 16.

Florio’s take: The Bucs are shifting toward a team that likes to run the ball and play defense. Whatever it takes to win. And it will be enough to win on Sunday.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Packers 20.


49ers (-1.5) at Broncos

MDS’s take: Jimmy Garoppolo is better than Trey Lance, which means the 49ers have a better chance of winning in the short term, as unfortunate as Lance’s injury was for the 49ers’ long-term plans. They’ll win a tough one against Russell Wilson and the Broncos.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 24, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take: Something’s not right with this line. The Broncos are tangled up in the mechanics of play calling. The 49ers have an elite roster. Now that the quarterback situation has been resolved, look for the 49ers to begin to thrive.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 34, Broncos 20.


Cowboys (+2.5) at Giants

MDS’s take: Yes, the Giants are 2-0, but they’re about as unimpressive a 2-0 as it gets. Yes, the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, but Cooper Rush has proven he can fill in adequately. I’m surprised the Giants are favored.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Giants 20.

Florio’s take: Some 0-2 teams are due to win. Some 2-0 teams are due to lose. The Giants are due to lose, and the Cowboys under Cooper Rush can do enough to win.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 21, Giants 17.

47 responses to “PFT’s Week 3 2022 NFL picks

  1. Weird stat of the week: The Ravens have beaten the Patriots twice in New England in the postseason, but they’ve never won in New England in the regular season.

    That will change Sunday in a score that mirrors the final score of the AFC Championship Game prior to Super Bowl 47.

    Ravens 28
    Patriots 13

    Chiefs are the Survivor Pick of the Week.

  2. I believe the Bills/Dolphins game is one of the more interesting this week. If Tua and the WRs can keep the momentum from the Ravens game going then this game could be a close, high scoring affair. Or the Bills could blow them out. I think the Bills will blow them out The Bills defense is much better than the defense the Ravens had on the field last week.

    Bills 42
    Dolphins 17

  3. No one is taking my Dolphins and I understand why. However, it will be a very interesting Monday morning of NFL news if the Dolphins pull off a win.

  4. I audibly laughed when I saw the Browns picked over the Steelers. After collapsing against the Jets, we should not be favored over any team, period. At least not until the defense can prove it won’t give up 2 touchdowns in 90 seconds.

  5. Platinum Picks of the Week: (1) Chiefs (-6.5) over the Colts. The spot, which might make the Colts an attractive pick as a home ‘dog, is not nearly enough to achieve wagering equity. Kansas City 38, Indianpolis 17. (2) Buccaneers (-1) over the Packers. Tampa’s defense has allowed 13 points in two games. Thirteen. Rodgers is elite, of course, but with inexperience receivers and a so-so line, Green Bay will struggle to score. Tampa Bay, 20, Green Bay 13. (Note: The under in this game (O/U set at 41.5) is also worth considering.)

  6. Ravens have no D…. Just what an offense in the works needs to build on…..ThePats do have a D & it’s good enough to to keep the Ravens winless at Gillette during the regular season
    Pats 27-23

  7. Rhule is finished. He has shown no ability to lead his team in the right direction. Even if the Panthers win it’s just a matter of time.
    I predict him and Hackett will be gone soon.

  8. Panthers over Saints – Saints offense is stale, Playing a turn over prone qb with multiple injuries, no Kamara (their only offense, and the Panthers are desperate to win..

    Seahawks over Falcons – could go either way because both team are underwhelming so go with home team…

    Buccaneers over Packers – Packers struggle early in seasons, struggle in Tampa, Bucs defense is playing as good as any….

  9. Granted, the Giants beat two fairly bad teams, but I don’t think Dallas is that much better this year.

  10. Brownies, Lions, Falcons, Raiders, Texans, Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Iggles, Saints, Jags, Cardinals, Packers, Niners, Giants. All cover and/or outright win

  11. kissbillsrings says:
    September 22, 2022 at 12:35 pm

    Ravens have no D…. Just what an offense in the works needs to build on…..ThePats do have a D & it’s good enough to to keep the Ravens winless at Gillette during the regular season
    Pats 27-23
    __________________________________

    Ravens have new DC, always an adjustment. Mac Jones can’t throw deep anyway. Ravens will make short work of the Pats and take care of Buffalo the following week. The winning streak begins.

  12. Hat’s off to anyone who has the chutzpah to publicly pick games . I am a chicken 🐔!

  13. I think the upset will come with Jacksonville over the Chargers. I think Herbert’s ribs are going to cause more issues than some think and the Jags are feeling good.

  14. Eagles on short week — on the road — never a good combination. Wash always plays them tough and the Wentz revenge factor is HUGE. He will make some great throws, no doubt, and has a nice group of receivers. The question is: how many Wentzonian plays (terrible reads, fumbles, left-handed throws, etc.) will he make? Eagles should be able to run the ball at will, and get pressure vs. banged-up Wash OL. This will be a very close game – line is way too high. If you’re an Eagles fan, hold your breath. If they find a way to win a game like this, it could be a very special season.

  15. I can get why they both writers picked Buffalo to beat Miami, but I simply don’t think their reasoning holds up. It’s way too early to say the Bills are in a different class based on two wins over teams that have considerable question marks. Rams barely scraped by the Falcons after all, and the Titans lost to the Giants at home. Both of those teams also had significant player losses from last year. Giving Buffalo substantial credit for those victories assumes both of those teams are comparable to last year’s squads. They’re not.
    As for Florio, Buffalo’s secondary is banged up, and if their pass rush doesn’t consistently pressure Tua, they will be hard pressed to keep both Hill and Waddle from running up and down the field.
    That said, I still expect the Bills to win. Because that’s what the prohibitive super bowl favourite is supposed to do. But if the Dolphins pull it out, that means the division is up for grabs.

  16. The Bills defense is majorly banged up. It’s possible that Micah Hyde, Dane Jackson, Matt Milano, Jordan Phillips, Ed Oliver and Tim Settle all miss the game Sunday… that’s a possible 5 starters on the defense that might be out. I know they say next man up, but that’s a lot to ask backups when you are playing against Hill, Waddle and the Miami run game. Allen would have to be damn near perfect on Sunday if half the Bills defenders are out.

  17. Niners have an elite roster except one place that truly matters, unfortunately. That was what was supposed to be fixed with Lance. Now they are back in the good team purgatory.

    Meanwhile, don’t assume that cooper rush has suddenly become really good. Dallas will lose to the giants

  18. No matter how good the Bills look, I think it’s probably impossible to look any better than the 2007 Patriots did, and they finally fell. The lesson is that no team can look good enough to actually be unbeatable. Every team has a weakness and someone will find it.

    I think the Bills will win, but the above stands.

  19. One thing I learned as an Eagles fan is that, despite how bad other teams in the division may look, most division games end up being close. I still think the Eagles will win, but given the short week following the big win on Monday night, I can see this one being real close.

  20. Still need to see more from the Lions before i pick them to win on the road against a decent team.

    Vikings 31
    Lions 24

  21. kissbillsrings says:
    September 22, 2022 at 12:35 pm
    Ravens have no D…. Just what an offense in the works needs to build on…..ThePats do have a D & it’s good enough to to keep the Ravens winless at Gillette during the regular season
    Pats 27-23
    ————————-
    NE isn’t going to be trotting out Waddle or Hill at WR Sunday and Tua > Jones. Despite the poor showing by the Ravens defense against Miami I see NE having a lot of trouble scoring in this game.

    Ravens 27
    NE 10

  22. bobhk says:
    September 22, 2022 at 2:46 pm
    Niners have an elite roster except one place that truly matters, unfortunately. That was what was supposed to be fixed with Lance. Now they are back in the good team purgatory.

    Meanwhile, don’t assume that cooper rush has suddenly become really good. Dallas will lose to the giants

    43Rate This
    —————————————————————————————–
    If you are talking the purgatory of Super Bowls and conference championship games, yeah, Jimmy G is only able to take them to prugatory.

  23. 1westcoastfootballfan says:
    September 22, 2022 at 3:33 pm
    bobhk says:
    September 22, 2022 at 2:46 pm
    Niners have an elite roster except one place that truly matters, unfortunately. That was what was supposed to be fixed with Lance. Now they are back in the good team purgatory.

    Meanwhile, don’t assume that cooper rush has suddenly become really good. Dallas will lose to the giants

    43Rate This
    —————————————————————————————–
    If you are talking the purgatory of Super Bowls and conference championship games, yeah, Jimmy G is only able to take them to prugatory.
    ——-//
    Yes, for a talented team not winning is purgatory. Plus he didn’t “take them” there. He was a part but he also held them back.

  24. Picking the Pats to lose worked out for me last week so Ill do it again this week. Maybe put down a few extra dollars to seal a Patriots victory.

  25. evpft says:
    September 22, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    No matter how good the Bills look, I think it’s probably impossible to look any better than the 2007 Patriots did, and they finally fell….

    =============

    Quickly coming to mind are the 72 Dolphins and 85 Bears. Both were better than the 2007 Pats.

  26. MDS picking the Browns over the Steelers?? Oh please. We could rest all of our starters and still dominate the Cleveland Clowns. Steelers gonna roll!!

  27. The Patriots, as Home Dogs, upset Baltimore to go 2-1 on the season and having held the Dolphins offense to 13 points in Miami in their one loss, and suddenly the narrative changes from “What the heck are they doing?” to “Maybe Bill Belichick knows more about football than we do.”

  28. Kyler Murray looks like a different player when he is behind and can play street ball and, not have to think but just run and gun. There, fixed it for you!

  29. thaswussup says:
    September 22, 2022 at 4:01 pm

    The Patriots, as Home Dogs, upset Baltimore to go 2-1 on the season

    ===

    I think Belichick is the GOAT, hands down, but I don’t think he or anyone else on the Pats will have an answer for Lamar Jackson this week. Should be interesting to see.

  30. That 49ers Broncos line makes me nervous too. Glad to see Kittle is back though, should help the Niners.

  31. If Raiders lose again, will Davante Adams phone his pal Aaron and request a trade back to Green Bay?

  32. Shanahan will find a way to lose the game in the 4th quarter I’m sure. Clara will be lucky to sneak into 3rd place in the NFC West like they did last year. 😉

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