PFT’s Week 5 2022 NFL picks

Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys
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It was a very good week. In two ways.

One, I went 12-4. Two, I picked up three more games in the head-to-head competition with MDS.

I prevailed this week in four of five disagreements. I went 12-4 for the week, MDS finished 9-7.

For the year, I’m now 37-26-1. MDS is 30-33-1.

This week, we disagree on only three games. Scroll for the picks.

Colts (+3.5) at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos have underachieved in Russell Wilson‘s first season, but not as much as the Colts have underachieved in Matt Ryan‘s first season. The Broncos will get their third win.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 20, Colts 10.

Florio’s take: The Broncos seem worse than 2-2. Then again, the Colts seem worse than 1-2-1. They also don’t have Jonathan Taylor. Which seems significant.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 17, Colts 9.


Giants (+8) vs. Packers

MDS’s take: The Giants are a surprising 3-1 and aren’t as good as that record would suggest. The Packers are perhaps better than 3-1 would suggest, and should win easily.

MDS’s pick: Packers 31, Giants 13.

Florio’s take: The Packers make their first trip to London a memorable one. For the Giants, it’s forgettable.

Florio’s pick: Packers 34, Giants 16.


Steelers (+14) at Bills

MDS’s take: The Steelers are two-touchdown underdogs in what is shaping up to be one of their worst seasons in the last half-century. They’ll keep it slightly closer than two touchdowns, but the Bills will win comfortably.

MDS’s pick: Bills 30, Steelers 20.

Florio’s take: The Steelers are the last team since the merger to be 14-point underdogs. They’re not good enough to win. But they’re good enough to cover.

Florio’s pick: Bills 27, Steeler 17.


Chargers (-2.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns’ offense has been better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, but their defense is a mess, and Justin Herbert should thrive.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Browns 21.

Florio’s take: This one’s a toss up, with the edge going to the home team.

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, Chargers 21.


Bears (+7) at Vikings

MDS’s take: Justin Fields is trending increasingly toward “draft bust” territory in his second season. The Vikings’ defense isn’t very good, but I just can’t see the Bears’ offense scoring much against anyone right now.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 22, Bears 10.

Florio’s take: The Vikings have found a way to barely win, on a consistent basis. Which is better than the last two years, when they found a way to barely lose on a consistent basis.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 27, Bears 21.


Lions (+3) at Patriots

MDS’s take: We don’t know who’s playing quarterback for the Patriots, but any offense should score a lot of points against the terrible Lions defense.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Lions 31.

Florio’s take: Bill Belichick will be able to slow down the Detroit offense, and the Patriots will have enough offense to outscore the Lions — especially with former Detroit coach Matt Patricia anxious to get a crack at his old team.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Lions 20.


Seahawks (+5) at Saints

MDS’s take: Geno Smith is off to an excellent start this season, but he’ll come back to earth on Sunday in New Orleans.

MDS’s pick: Saints 17, Seahawks 13.

Florio’s take: The Saints are due for a win, but playing one week after the trip to London could be a factor in whether they cover the spread.

Florio’s pick: Saints 20, Seahawks 17.


Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: Even without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense should cruise against a bad Jets defense.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 21.

Florio’s take: Can Teddy Bridgewater keep the offense humming? Can the Jets play at home like they do on the road?

Florio’s pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20.


Falcons (+8.5) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Tom Brady wants to avoid his first three-game losing streak in 20 years. He’ll do it against a Falcons team that is playing hard but just doesn’t have the roster to compete in the NFC South.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take: Back in their routine, the Bucs get back to playing winning football, in a convincing way.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 13.


Titans (-2.5) at Commanders

MDS’s take: I haven’t been impressed with the Titans this season, but it’s hard for me to pick the Commanders against anyone as long as Carson Wentz is playing the way he is.

MDS’s pick: Titans 17, Commanders 13.

Florio’s take: The Titans are rolling. The Commanders are reeling. This one is easy.

Florio’s pick: Titans 21, Commanders 10.


Texans (+7) at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Jaguars’ rebuilding effort is making good progress. The Texans’ is not.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 21, Texans 10.

Florio’s take: The Texans have owned the Jaguars in recent years. Not this weekend.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 27, Texans 17.


49ers (-6.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Panthers look like they’ve made no progress at all in three years of Matt Rhule trying to rebuild the franchise. The 49ers win this one going away, even with a long trip on a short week.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 30, Panthers 13.

Florio’s take: The next time Baker Mayfield bets, he should consider betting on anything other than himself.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 24, Panthers 10.


Cowboys (+5.5) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Cowboys are still undefeated with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback, but I think it comes to an end in a close loss to the Rams.

MDS’s pick: Rams 28, Cowboys 27.

Florio’s take: This is an unofficial home game for a Cowboys team with a defense that is nearly good enough to do to the L.A. offense what the 49ers did on Monday night.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 17, Rams 13.


Eagles (-5) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Eagles are playing great football on both sides of the ball, and they should win this one easily.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 27, Cardinals 14.

Florio’s take: This is a potential trap for the Eagles, especially with the Cowboys looming.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 34, Cardinals 21.


Bengals (+3) at Ravens

MDS’s take: Lamar Jackson is playing much, much better than Joe Burrow this season, and that’s going to be the difference on Sunday night.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 21.

Florio’s take: This one is all about coach John Harbaugh finding a way to end a five-game home losing streak.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 23.


Raiders (+7) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: Patrick Mahomes has always played well against the Raiders, and Monday night will be no different.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take: Sorry, Raiders. Prime time in Kansas City is not a good time to play the Chiefs.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24.

38 responses to “PFT’s Week 5 2022 NFL picks

  1. Bucs over Falcons – Even though the Falcons have score well in all their games, their defense has struggled and I see that as enough for the Bucs offense to get the win!

    Saints over Seahawks – neither team has been very impressive but I think the Saints at home have the advantage… (This is assuming Dalton is qb… Dalton can lead them to a win… Winston has been holding them back)…

    49ers over Panthers – 49ers got their qb situation right and and a solid team… Panthers are a mess it seems!

  2. I’ll take it but how are we better than our 3-1 record when the only team we’ve beat convincingly is the Bears? We barely beat an average Bucs team and a third string QB and we got smacked by the Vikings.

  3. Before the season started both you guys were saying how good the Steelers are. They lose Sunday they are as good as… help me finish the sentence…. record says they are 1-4.

  4. Platinum Picks of the Week: (1) Broncos (-3) over the Colts. With Jonathan Taylor out, Matt Ryan aging before our eyes and Russell Wilson due for a big game, this spot seems exceedingly low. Broncos 27, Colts 14. (2) 49ers (-6.5) over the Panthers. This game features arguably the league’s best defense against a Baker Mayfield-led offense. This could be a shutout. 49ers 24, Panthers 6.

  5. Giants over the Pack in an upset for the ages. And Seahawks win another close one against the Saints. No reasoning needed, just as with the picks in the article.

  6. It should be noted that in past years including last year with Taylor Heinicke, the offense could score at least 21 points. This year the team is one of the worst it has ever been and has scored only about 18 points per game. And to think Washington traded draft picks do this badly! I see Washington scoring just field goals – 3 of them as they lose by 21 points. The defense is giving up almost 27 points per game.

  7. Minus the safety last week, the donkeys have the same offensive scoring average as the Bears. Let that sink in.

    Danger*ss and Hackett will come up short and be exposed.

    Colts 17 – Donkeys 15

  8. MDS’s pick: Patriots 38, Lions 31.
    Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Lions 20.

    Patriots are going to score more than 30 with Zappe at QB? LOL good luck with that.

  9. the niners are also gifted the 4:00 slot. much tougher for west coast teams to play in the 1pm et window

  10. Mongonation’s official Week 5 Picks of the 2022 NFL Season:

    1. Giants (+8) at Packers. Do not expect the Giants to win but with this being a “home” game for the Packers in London and them coming off a thrilling last second OT win vs. NE, I could see this being a sluggish effort from them. Packers 21, Giants 16.

    2. Browns (+2.5) vs. Chargers. LAC’s two wins this season are against teams with a combined record of 1-6-1. The Chargers continue to be unable to stop the run – Dameon Pierce gashed them for 131 yards (9.4 YPC) last week. Browns 27, Chargers 24.

    3. Titans (-2.5) at Commanders. This line seems trappy since I’m not sure the Commanders should be less than 3 point underdogs to basically any team in the league right now. Titans 24, Commanders 14.

    4. 49ers (-6.5) at Panthers. Another line that by appearance seems a bit trappy but just how are the Panthers going to put up any points vs. the 49ers outside of special teams or defensive touchdowns? 49ers 21, Panthers 10.

  11. The vikings have only won TWO games “barely”… so not really “on a consistent basis”.
    One they won CONVINCINGLY (Packers) and other they LOST convincingly.

    So, really no trending here to intelligently comment on.

    That said, they are better than the Bears, even with the horrible Defensive shell coverage they are employing, giving QBs a free 20 yard area over the middle for ANY pass they choose to throw.

  12. I feel like the Chargers should be the favorite in that game. They should be calling a Browns win an upset if anything

  13. Just when the Raider started feeling better about themselves, now they will see how important the Titans and Cards games were.

  14. It’s the movable force (Bengals offensive line) versus the stoppable object (Ravens pass rush). i won’t enjoy seeing it happen, but JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins will light up the Ravens secondary. Again.

    Bengals 27
    Ravens 17

    Bills are the Survivor Pick of the Week.

  15. Joe Burrow threw for over 900 yards and 7TDs against the Ravens last year, with Cincinnati scoring 41 points in both games. And yet neither writer here predicts them to score more than 23. Baltimore’s defence isn’t any better this season despite their improved health. The glaring weakness for the Bengals remains the O-line and the Ravens have a turrible pass rush, and yet both pick Baltimore to win?
    The Bengals may not score 41, or even win, but bet the over.

  16. Analytics and tangibles aside, this is exactly the type of game that will further oppress the perpetually downtrodden Detroit Lions. Losing to Patricia would be disheartening and disappointing, two of the organization’s specialties. It would be a big surprise if the team didn’t find yet another way to add an additional bitter memory to our collective half century + of sadness.

  17. The Packers are better than their 3-1 record?? By what criteria? They could just as easily be 1-3. The wins over the Bucs and Pats were certainly not convincing wins.

  18. The Lions offence has been absurd this season.
    More absurd is thinking that the Patriots will be able to score with them. Can’t see New England winning unless they keep the Lions under twenty points.

  19. Packers gets trounced by the Vikings in week one, beat a bad Bears two in week two, and barely scrape by the injury depleted Bucs and Patriots.
    The Giants may be mirage, but so are the Packers. The only difference between the two so far this year is that Green Bay was expected to be better whereas New York was expected to be worse.
    Expectations which should have been altered after four games.

  20. The Packers can’t score 30+ points unless tehy get a defensive score, or are gifted multiple turnovers

  21. When the Ravens play an average to below average QB they win (Flacco, Mac Jones). When they play an above average QB they lose (Tua, Allen). I think Burrow is well above average. If the pattern holds, look for the Ravens to go up by about 20 and lose by 3.

    Halftime:

    Ravens 24
    Bengals 7

    Final:

    Bengals 34
    Ravens 31

  22. If Watt wasn’t hurt and Pickett started the season at QB as he should have, the Steelers would AT LEAST be 3-1. No doubt

  23. inozwetrust says:
    October 6, 2022 at 2:43 pm
    When the Ravens play an average to below average QB they win (Flacco, Mac Jones). When they play an above average QB they lose (Tua, Allen). I think Burrow is well above average. If the pattern holds, look for the Ravens to go up by about 20 and lose by 3.

    Halftime:

    Ravens 24
    Bengals 7

    Final:

    Bengals 34
    Ravens 31
    _______________________________________________-

    Interesting assessment, but most NFL games are won and lost on a couple plays here and there. Simply punting on 4th down could have easily won the Miami game. Different referee calls could have won the Buffalo game. With the ball bouncing in another direction, the NE game could have been a loss. Like they used the say, the difference between 8-8 and 12-4 is a lot closer than you think. And too much is made of these QBs, other players and coaches have a lot to do with wins and losses too (Harbaugh). Burrow is still sub .500 for his career, so let’s not get too excited.

  24. With QB and WR injuries on the Giants, Green Bay will be gifted another win. The only team they’ve played at full strength was the Vikings, and GB lost.

  25. The Ravens secondary is absolutely awful. And it’s not as though they have a bunch of bums back there. There are some very talented CBs and safeties on this team. I don’t get it. One thing I do know is that if the Ravens are playing against a good QB – take the over every time.

  26. I guess you both have to learn the hard way about picking against future Hall of Fame head coach Mike Tomlin. He is not in the blinking business!

  27. nite2al says:
    October 6, 2022 at 4:58 pm
    inozwetrust says:
    October 6, 2022 at 2:43 pm
    When the Ravens play an average to below average QB they win (Flacco, Mac Jones). When they play an above average QB they lose (Tua, Allen). I think Burrow is well above average. If the pattern holds, look for the Ravens to go up by about 20 and lose by 3.

    Halftime:

    Ravens 24
    Bengals 7

    Final:

    Bengals 34
    Ravens 31
    _______________________________________________-

    Interesting assessment, but most NFL games are won and lost on a couple plays here and there. Simply punting on 4th down could have easily won the Miami game. Different referee calls could have won the Buffalo game. With the ball bouncing in another direction, the NE game could have been a loss. Like they used the say, the difference between 8-8 and 12-4 is a lot closer than you think. And too much is made of these QBs, other players and coaches have a lot to do with wins and losses too (Harbaugh). Burrow is still sub .500 for his career, so let’s not get too excited.

    Burrow is above .500
    2020. 2-6-1
    2021 13-8
    2022 2-2

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