Jim Irsay justifies Jeff Saturday hire by saying NFL coaches are “afraid”

Owner/CEO Of The Indianapolis Colts Jim Irsay Hosts Reception Celebrating 100th Birthday Of Late Literary Pioneer Jack Kerouac
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Well, Jim Irsay, good luck convincing any experienced NFL coaches with viable options to apply for your permanent head-coaching job after the season.

In clumsily attempting to justify the unjustifiable decision to ignore any candidate with, you know, actual experience coaching in the NFL or college football, Irsay turned it around, claiming that he actually wanted someone without experience.

“I’m glad he doesn’t have any NFL experience,” Irsay told reporters regarding new interim coach Jeff Saturday. “I’m glad he hasn’t learned the fear that’s in this league. Because it’s tough for all our coaches. They’re afraid. They go to analytics. And it gets difficult. I mean, he doesn’t have all that. He doesn’t have that fear.”

Beyond the fact that Irsay recklessly cast aspersions on every current NFL head coach and assistant coach by calling them chicken, his statement makes no sense. Analytics has become a tool that pushes coaches away from their fears. Analytics has made previously unconventional decisions far more conventional, making those decisions easier to defend when the time comes for media and fans to criticize a failed outcome. Coaches who rely on analytics aren’t operating out of fear, they’re operating out of bravado.

Besides, what did Irsay think he was getting when he hired Frank Reich away from the Eagles, a team that has made analytics a way of life? Currently, the Philly approach is proving to be pretty damn special.

Making Irsay’s take make even less sense is that fact that, typically, it’s the coach who has to be coaxed to ditch gut instinct and other qualitative, old-school factors to go all in on the numbers and the formulas and the predictive math that says, for example, going for it on fourth and two from your own 35 leads to a 39-percent chance of winning, and that punting leads to a 35-percent chance of victory. (I made up those numbers, but it probably wouldn’t be very difficult to design a mathematical model that would sit out those results, since the person who designs the model controls the variables.)

And, yes, Irsay will have to find a way to walk those comments back when the time comes to hire a coach for 2023 and beyond. Maybe the hidden genius of his strategy is that he’s trying to preemptively sabotage the pool of interested coaches, making it easier to stick with Saturday for all Sundays, Mondays, and Thursdays next year.

But that would be giving Irsay way too much credit. Based on Monday, he deserves very little. If any.

36 responses to “Jim Irsay justifies Jeff Saturday hire by saying NFL coaches are “afraid”

  1. They are tanking plain and simple. Should have fired the GM as well and put Pat McAfee there for the rest of the season. Then you are just a couple more guys short of a clown car acting as a football team.

  2. It all started about a week or so ago, but two years from now when Jim is forced to sell his franchise, we will remember today as when it all began.

  3. The Colts problems go deeper than the head coach. I was roundly ridiculed for suggesting that Matt Pryor was not a good player, let alone a starting caliber LT. Without good play from the offensive line, the Colts can’t expect good play from the QB or the rest of the offense. Jeff Saturday won’t be able to fix that.

  4. Coaches are afraid and go to analytics?

    Sounds like an owner behind the times.

    Draft a good QB and things will turn around .

  5. “Coaches who rely on analytics aren’t operating out of fear, they’re operating out of bravado.”
    _____________

    I’d say that it is neither. Instead, it is relying on logic, something we all should be doing much more.

  6. This ‘experiment’ will be a most fascinating follow through the second half of the season (and into the offseason).

  7. I think this hire is about 1 thing — winning the locker room back. It was obvious from Ryan Kelly’s comments that Matt Ryan’s benching didn’t sit well in the locker room. The O-Line is also the most criticized unit on the Colts team. Jeff Saturday addresses both those problems. He will command respect of the players and give the O-line the chance to feel like they have someone who believes in them and understands the issues.

    Is it an unconventional hire? For sure. Is it a risky hire? Maybe, but they don’t have much to lose. But if there’s a guy with no head coaching experience that could win this locker room back and fix the O-line problems, Jeff Saturday is probably the one guy that could do that. It might not be as crazy a decision as you guys think.

  8. If this isnt the most blatant sign of tanking I dont know what is. Irsay is tired of the QB disaster he team has made for itself. He wants a shot at another Luck or Manning.

  9. he fired frank for wentz. soon he’ll fire ballard for matty ice and reich. saturday should have stayed on tv slinging pancakes around and dancing like a fool….

  10. This is the crazy world we live in where experience is now seen as a negative and the less you know going in the better because that just means you have more “new” ideas.

  11. I get what Irsay is saying.Coaches are afraid to trust their instincts, conventional wisdom and common sense and are now making goofy calls by ignoring momentum,flow of the game and situations.

  12. Balance! Balance! Balance! My goodness there is no balance anymore. Yes, analytics play a role, but common sense should as well. In no way does any one play ever determine a game. It is the cumulative effect of plays that made any given one play unique but not game determining. If I do X then my win % probability is Y – this discounts the variables of every other play wich includes player effort, player skill, player psychology, player physiology, weather, substitutions, fan noise, a duck walking onto the field etc. Bottom line, nuance allows for analytics, but it shouldn’t be the major point of reference.

  13. And Irsay is paying a QB big money not to play because, wait for it, he’s afraid he’ll get hurt.

  14. Can I get a job then? I won on Madden one time. You don’t even have to pay me market value. I’ll take 2 mil a year.

  15. There is a very fine line between an owner making very unconventional decisions, or just trying to tank. Usually its not this obvious–generally coaches will bench veterans for younger players or rookies–under the guise of trying to evaluate them for the next year. Case in point–The Tampa Bay Bucs having a lead at the half for their last game of the year. Lovie benched most of the starters post half-time, they lost and got the #1 overall pick–and took Winston.

    Another point–The Eagles benching QB Jalen hurts in a must win game for the playoffs. I assume it was the owner telling the coach to do it, and then the fallout was so negative Doug Peterson and the owner had to part ways.

    Just feed bad for some vets on that colt team that signed for a chance to win.

  16. This is one of the stupidest things I ever heard an owner say… other than Steve Spurrier is the Head Coach of the Washington NFL Football squad… or Jim Zorn is the Head Coach of the Washington Football squad… #HTTR

    But then again, it may be the most Genius thing an allegedly chemically altered NFL owner has ever said… Face it… I’m going to defend Irsay until the day he gets “The Danny” out of the NFL. Then I will go back to bringing up the Mayflower vans.

    I believe that it is true that most NFL HC’s and Coordinators are Chickens^h!tz. Using analytics as reasoning for things going wrong is just a built in excuse. Using analytics as the reason why games are won is overreaching. Math is never wrong, correct?

    Most NFL coordinators have their heads buried in the “call sheets” that have been “game planned” to the Nth level to come up with the perfect call for each down and distance. Few NFL HCs and Coordinators actually watch the game.

    It seems to me that the theory is that if a team wins every play, said team will win every game. The “Analytics” math says this is true.

    I’m here to tell you that this is false. I believe that if “play callers” spent more time watching the game and feeling the flow will result in more WINS than the analytics will predict.

    Added bonus: Jeff Saturday is an offensive lineman, which we all know are the smartest football players on the field every week.

  17. Afraid to tank ? Enter Saturday…..Loyal Foot soldier to get the job done.
    He will help ensure the best possible draft slot.

  18. I don’t know who Jim Irsay is getting his advice from, but it’s not conducive to winning. Washington fans read this stuff and think how lucky they are to have Dan Snyder. Raiders fans read this and understand what Colts fans are going through. Frank Reich reads this and is glad he’s no longer there.

  19. Every coach in the NFL should be angry about what Irsay did.
    Coaching is a profession…a career. The NFL has many coaches that have been coaching for 20, 30, 40 years. So instead of giving the job to one of the 30+ year coaches on the Colts, or some other coach from another team, Irsay gives the job to a friend of his WITH NO COACHING EXPERIENCE.
    Coaching is a skill. It’s not something that anyone can do, and it usually takes years of hard work to be recognized.

  20. radar773 says:
    November 8, 2022 at 11:49 am
    Every coach in the NFL should be angry about what Irsay did.
    Coaching is a profession…a career. The NFL has many coaches that have been coaching for 20, 30, 40 years. So instead of giving the job to one of the 30+ year coaches on the Colts, or some other coach from another team, Irsay gives the job to a friend of his WITH NO COACHING EXPERIENCE.
    Coaching is a skill. It’s not something that anyone can do, and it usually takes years of hard work to be recognized.

    —————–

    Or you can be like the Packers D coordinator and use good ole nepotism. It is how most coaches get their break.

  21. So say it’s 4th and 2 from the opponents 30 yard line, and analytics tell you that you have a 60% chance of converting the 1st down. Is it actually smart to go for it and fail to convert 4 out of 10 times rather than kick a field goal and get 3 points in a league where most games come down to a razor thin margin? Either way, the coach can lean into the fact that analytics told him it was the “smart” move to make. Or maybe Jim Irsay got sick of watching his team not run the ball with Jonathan Taylor because analytics told Frank Reich to throw the ball. I’m guessing Irsay was sick of watching Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz throw 60 passes a game because that what analytics said to do.

  22. meanj0e says:
    November 8, 2022 at 12:32 pm
    So say it’s 4th and 2 from the opponents 30 yard line, and analytics tell you that you have a 60% chance of converting the 1st down. Is it actually smart to go for it and fail to convert 4 out of 10 times rather than kick a field goal and get 3 points in a league where most games come down to a razor thin margin? Either way, the coach can lean into the fact that analytics told him it was the “smart” move to make. Or maybe Jim Irsay got sick of watching his team not run the ball with Jonathan Taylor because analytics told Frank Reich to throw the ball. I’m guessing Irsay was sick of watching Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz throw 60 passes a game because that what analytics said to do.
    __________

    Let’s face it, no one here knows anything about football analytics or analytics in general. The networks do not employ statisticians to explain the probabilities and the broadcasters themselves do not know. On the other hand, most of the teams employ the best statisticians and analysts who can calculate all of the probabilities in real time.

    Anyone here who thinks that they know what analytics the teams are relying on is whistling in the wind.

  23. Instead of concentrating on expanding his vast memorabilia collection and creating press releases critical of other NFL owners, Jim Irsay should find a way to put more than a cursory effort into running his own franchise. His personell choices border on laughable.

  24. Jim Irsay makes a good point in regards to coaches in fear . That fear is a by product of the overhyped Quarterbacks entering the league. These quarterbacks attend “QB Guru” camps that so call elevate and fix a young QB game . Damage is done at the camps; it doesn’t help nor enhance QB’s innate ability.

  25. “Analytics has become a tool that pushes coaches away from their fears.”

    Right. Because they’re afraid without it.

    Look…I’m not a fan of Irsay or Jeff Saturday, but let’s not go defending the current analytics-driven generation just because their loudest critic at the moment happens to be the carnival barker in Indianapolis.

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