PFT’s NFL Week 10 picks

USA TODAY Sports

The good news is I went 10-3 last week. The bad news is MDS went 11-2.

We disagreed on only one game. Thanks to the Raiders imploding (again), MDS got it right.

For the season, I’m now 87-49-1. MDS is 77-58-1.

This week, we disagree on two games. For all Week Ten picks, scroll away.

Falcons (-3) at Panthers

MDS’s take: Steve Wilks did a solid job of getting his team not to quit on the season after the firing of Matt Rhule and the trading of Christian McCaffrey. But as we saw last week against the Bengals, this Panthers team just isn’t good enough. The Falcons should win what will probably be another fairly dull Thursday night game.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 13.

Florio’s take: Only 11 days after they had an epic battle in Atlanta, these teams seem to be moving in very different directions.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20.


Seahawks (+3) vs. Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The German fans get an intriguing game between two NFC division leaders. Geno Smith has played well this season, but the Bucs’ defense should be able to match up well with him.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 17, Seahawks 13.

Florio’s take: It will be a Super Bowl atmosphere in Munich, and Tom Brady knows a thing or two about thriving in that setting.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 22, Seahawks 17.


Vikings (+3.5) at Bills

MDS’s take: The status of Josh Allen’s elbow may make me regret this pick, but as of right now I don’t see the Vikings playing a competitive game against a Bills team that will be eager to rebound from last week’s loss.

MDS’s pick: Bills 31, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take: This pick is based on an educated guess that Josh Allen won’t play, and on a belief that the Minnesota offense is finding its groove, thanks to the T.J. Hockenson trade.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Bills 20.


Lions (+3) at Bears

MDS’s take: The Bears’ offense has been much improved since the coaching staff finally did what Bears fans have been begging for and let Justin Fields make plays with his legs. They’ll have another good offensive game against a bad Lions defense.

MDS’s pick: Bears 30, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: The Bears have embraced the things Justin Fields does best, and it could help Chicago chase the last playoff spot in the NFC.

Florio’s pick: Bears 27, Lions 17.


Broncos (+3) at Titans

MDS’s take: Give Titans coach Mike Vrabel plenty of credit for having his team playing well despite the absence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Vrabel will out-coach Nathaniel Hackett and the Titans will win.

MDS’s pick: Titans 27, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take: The Titans are simply in a different class than the Broncos.

Florio’s pick: Titans 24, Broncos 14.


Jaguars (+9.5) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Jaguars have a knack for keeping games close, and I think they’ll do it again before falling short in Kansas City.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21.

Florio’s take: After a sluggish showing against the Titans, the Chiefs will be ready to deliver an easy knockout to an overmatched opponent.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 35, Jaguars 17.


Browns (+3.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Dolphins’ fast receivers will prove to be too much for the Browns’ secondary in a high-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 35, Browns 28.

Florio’s take: The team that wanted to trade for Deshaun Watson last year faces the team that did. Without Watson on the field, yet.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 31, Browns 24.


Texans (+5) at Giants

MDS’s take: The Texans may be the worst team in the league, and the Giants will beat them handily.

MDS’s pick: Giants 27, Texans 16.

Florio’s take: The Giants had two weeks to get ready for this one. They shouldn’t need two days.

Florio’s pick: Giants 24, Texans 14.


Saints (-2.5) at Steelers

MDS’s take: Andy Dalton hasn’t been good this year, but Kenny Pickett has been worse, and the Steelers are going to have a rough season as they go through the growing pains of their rookie quarterback.

MDS’s pick: Saints 27, Steelers 14.

Florio’s take: Short week and travel for the Saints. Bye week and home game for the Steelers. Throw in a dash of desperation and advantage, Pittsburgh.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 20, Saints 17.


Colts (+6) at Raiders

MDS’s take: Given the turmoil surrounding the Colts this week — and given how terrible they looked last week — I have a hard time seeing them playing competitively with anyone. Jim Irsay would love to see Jeff Saturday beat Josh McDaniels, but it’s not going to happen.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 27, Colts 12.

Florio’s take: If Josh McDaniels loses this one, he and Frank Reich will be able to watch games together for the rest of the season.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Colts 13.


Cowboys (-5) at Packers

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers just isn’t playing well, and I don’t see a lot of reasons to think he’s going to turn it around over the second half of the season.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Packers 20.

Florio’s take: Mike McCarthy gets his revenge against a team that is circling the drain.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Packers 17.


Cardinals (+3) at Rams

MDS’s take: Both of these teams are desperately trying to catch up to the Seahawks in the NFC West, which was not the way things were supposed to play out this season. I don’t like either the Rams’ or the Cardinals’ chances of getting to the playoffs, but I think the Rams are a little closer to a turnaround.

MDS’s pick: Rams 20, Cardinals 14.

Florio’s take: With or without Matthew Stafford, the Rams are sufficiently desperate to find a way to win this one.

Florio’s pick: Rams 26, Cardinals 20.


Chargers (+7) at 49ers

MDS’s take: This should be a close and exciting game, and I see Jimmy Garoppolo making a big throw late to make the difference.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 28, Chargers 24.

Florio’s take: The 49ers are getting ready to make their move.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 34, Chargers 21.


Commanders (+11) at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Commanders have played well since Taylor Heinicke took over as starting quarterback, but they’re not going to play well enough to give much of a game to the Eagles.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 13.

Florio’s take: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman had better be ready to fill plenty of garbage time.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 35, Commanders 10.

47 responses to “PFT’s NFL Week 10 picks

  1. My 2022 NFL Picks Week 10

    Last Week: 11-2
    Overall: 78-57-*1

    FALCONS 24 @ Panthers 17
    Seahawks 23 @ BUCCANEERS 28
    Vikings 22 @ BUFFALO 28
    Lions 17 @ BEARS 28
    BRONCOS 21 @ Titans 17
    Jaguars 17 @ CHIEFS 31
    Browns 20 @ DOLPHINS 28
    Texans 9 @ GIANTS 24
    SAINTS 22 @ Steelers 17
    Colts 6 @ RAIDERS 19
    COWBOYS 30 @ Packers 24
    Cardinals 16 @ RAMS 20
    CHARGERS 27 @ 49ers 24
    Commanders 17 @ EAGLES 26

  2. WAS at PHL – it’s a division game, and it will be closer than many think. Maybe PHL 27 WAS 20.

  3. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles get their first loss on a division opponent similar to the Buff NYJ game BUT with it being in Philly gotta take the home team

  4. I’m baffled by both writers picking the Bucs to beat the Seahawks. Seattle may have not been expected to do much but they’re on a four game win streak, whereas Tampa snapped their three game losing streak against the similarly floundering Rams with a last minute miracle from Tom Brady.
    It’s week 10.
    Isn’t it time now to judge a team by how they’re performing rather than their preseason expectations?

  5. Too much offensive firepower for the chargers to stop on Sunday night.

    Niners 52 chargers 24

  6. I don’t understand the love you both have for The Bucs – they will almost
    Certainly lose to the Seahawks – not even
    Close

  7. The Packers couldn’t even put 10 points against the abysmal Lions defence and both these guys sees them scoring at least 17 against a Dallas defence that is crushing offensive lines.
    Now that’s some funny stuff.
    Given how Green Bay’s season has went, this is the kind of situation that could likely seen Aaron Rodgers get injured and possibly begin the Jordan Love era.

  8. Cowboys (-5) at Packers

    MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers just isn’t playing well, and I don’t see a lot of reasons to think he’s going to turn it around over the second half of the season.

    MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Packers 20.

    Florio’s take: Mike McCarty gets his revenge against a team that is circling the drain.

    Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Packers 17.

    ———————–
    what?????
    they put up only 9 against “THE LIONS” ,what makes you think they will put up 17 against the BOYS?
    I’d say 3 at least,or be shut out.

  9. Lotta comment on the Philly game. I’m old enough to remember Sonny Jurgensen in his prime with the ‘Skins – not a whole lot of talent and took a ferocious beating, but he somehow won a lot of games he never should have won (even tho they had a losing record before Lombardi’s last year as a coach). Point being – Taylor Heinecke reminds me a lot of Sonny in that they both have a ferocious will to win. It may not be enough to prevail in Philly, but he could make it interesting

  10. Rams are falling apart losing four of the past five games, their O-line is still shambolic, and Stafford may not play.
    This has the potential to be a rather ugly home loss, never mind a win for LA.

  11. Platinum Pick of the Week: Buccaneers (-3) over the Seahawks. This is one of the most puzzling lines of the year considering how these two teams have played. And it opened at 2.5, indicating a smart money dump on Tampa. What do the sharps know? A couple of other things: The emotional Leftwich/Brady hug at the end of the Rams game had a “now we got this” feel to it. Also, this is the second straight road game for the Seahawks — albeit on a neutral field — but this one goes across nine time zones to Munich. So, with some wariness, Buccaneers 26, Seahawks 21.

  12. The remaining 1972 Dolphins are going to be toasting the Commanders on Tuesday morning. Commanders are going to upset the Eagles.

  13. That’s 10 weeks of the last place patriots failing to beat a single decent team, and getting blown out by a terrible bears team with a coach no one has ever heard of, and a QB who exposed the patriots baby noodle armed non QB as a total bust and joke.

  14. mhouser1922 says:
    November 10, 2022 at 11:53 am
    Platinum Pick of the Week: Buccaneers (-3) over the Seahawks. This is one of the most puzzling lines of the year considering how these two teams have played. And it opened at 2.5, indicating a smart money dump on Tampa. What do the sharps know? A couple of other things: The emotional Leftwich/Brady hug at the end of the Rams game had a “now we got this” feel to it. Also, this is the second straight road game for the Seahawks — albeit on a neutral field — but this one goes across nine time zones to Munich. So, with some wariness, Buccaneers 26, Seahawks 21.
    —————————————

    Sadly for you, the Titanium Pick of the Week is Seahawks 30, Bucs 20. It is shocking that everyone continues to sleep on the Seahawks. This team is really, really good and young and hungry and improving every single week. Bucs favored by 3 is a crazy line. Easy money. Take the Seahawks straight up.

  15. Spicy prediction: Cowboys beat Packers by 4+ touchdowns, Rogers flips off the crowd in frustration

  16. nirrad4417 says:
    November 10, 2022 at 11:55 am
    The remaining 1972 Dolphins are going to be toasting the Commanders on Tuesday morning. Commanders are going to upset the Eagles.
    ————–
    Have you spent the week with Irsay or something?

  17. Falcons over Panthers – Falcons are playing the the crown and the Panthers, well nothing…

    Bucs over Seahawks – traveling over seas disrupts their normal routine.. Gut says the Bucs handle it better…

    Saints over Steelers – For the Saints, this will be more like playing the Raiders than the Ravens so this should be a bounce back game for them…

  18. You’re under Brady’s spell. Seattle is feeling it, and they’ll have the crowd on their side.

  19. Who would’ve thought at the start of the year the Packers will end up in 3rd Place of the NFCN @ 3-7 after Week 10. Then comes the AFCS leaders in Titans, NFL leaders in Eagles, and the resurgent Bears with the Dolphins and Vikings still left to play. Just how far will they plummet?

    It would be hard to believe they don’t make serious changes in 2023.

  20. Patrick says:
    November 10, 2022 at 11:56 am
    That’s 10 weeks of the last place patriots failing to beat a single decent team, and getting blown out by a terrible bears team with a coach no one has ever heard of, and a QB who exposed the patriots baby noodle armed non QB as a total bust and joke.

    ======

    Have you seen the Pats games or just going by scores ? Did you notice that they beat Jets?

    Just QB is not the problem in offense. The entire offense is not in sync.

  21. The Rams have scored 26 or more points exactly once this season and their QB is injured…good luck with that score.

  22. Packers have to show they can win a game, any game, before there is any reason to pick them for any game the rest of the way. The way they are playing, the team could even notch a loss in their bye week!

  23. This is the final season of Aaron Rodgers career. I don’t believe it’s because he can’t play any longer, I just think he’s not motivated, for whatever reason.

  24. The Steelers start stacking wins as they run the table (pool shooting term) on their back nine (golfing term.) This will be a close win as they will start out in first gear for the long road ahead (car racing term) but as they are home dogs (gambling term) bet the farm! GO STEELERS

  25. Seahawks over Tampa. Brady is Brady but the fact remains for all the emotion in last weeks game, he scored one touchdown and Pete Carroll is a better coach than Leftwich. I see a possible Browns upset over Miami too. Their defense isn’t good against the run but they can harass a quarterback. I see Jacoby making less mistakes than Tua and Browns Chubb> Miami’s Chubb.

  26. Fins 38 Browns 28 Fish will look strong again by using their aerial attack to Hill and Waddle. All they need to do is stop Chubb and Hunt on one or two drives and they have the game won.

    Bills 31 Vikings 27 Cousins isn’t good in clutch situations look for him to turn the ball over at least twice.

    Packers 23 Cowboys 13 Aaron Rodgers owns the Cowboys I expect that to continue despite how entertaining it would be to see Packers lose another game.

  27. Rodgers will have his best game of the season.. and the Packers will still lose by at least 17 or more.

  28. The surging Patriots, winners of 4 out of the last 5 games, continue their playoff push this week by grabbing the 7th playoff spot after the Chargers fall to the 49ers, while they host family BBQ’s and lounge on the couch during their bye week.

    Josh Allen will likely practice on Friday and play on Sunday, but I would expect them to keep his throws short and his running limited to prevent longer term aggravation of the elbow injury, so the game with Minny could be very close. If they lose, the AFC east has four teams within 1 game of each other in the loss column. The AFC East could have all four teams in the playoffs this year. Strangely, the NFC East could do the same thing.

  29. I have a hard time seeing the Vikes beat the Bills in NY with or without Allen. Again, hope I’m wrong and this gets shoved in my face on Monday.

  30. Bucs beat the Rams because the Rams were slightly more inept. That wasn’t some amazing effort by the Bucs. Bucs are still a team that scores less than 20 points a game so if their D gives up even a couple TDs suddenly the game is in jeopardy.

  31. This isn’t TB from a year ago or two years ago.

    Hawks are much more complete and their defense has matched TB over this win streak.

    Brady will be sacked 5 times and Hawks will win.

  32. The Thursday night curse lives. MDS and Florio align on Thursday night pick and it is a lock to go the other way. Also when a line doesn’t make sense at all, you must go with it. Bucs cover somehow.

  33. I think you are incorrect about the Browns Dolphins game. The Browns finally saw the light by playing defense with their collective helmets completely out of their asses. They keep that up they won’t lose too many more games this year.

  34. I have a hard time with or without allen to see MDS’ 31-17 Bills pick. Bills D has two starters out (again) and if allen plays they will dumb it down, if Keenum plays, they will dumb it down. Has the makings of a 17-10 or 17-13 kinda game, which could go either way. If they rule allen out, i think this should be a pick-em, but Vegas doesnt seem sold on the Vikes and their weird winning ways this year. The O/U is around 43.5, and the line is around 3.5 favoring Buffalo.

    X Factor could likely be Dalvin Cook in this one.

  35. MDS’s pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 13.

    Florio’s take: Only 11 days after they had an epic battle in Atlanta, these teams seem to be moving in very different directions.

    Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20.

    ———-

    lol those didn’t hold up well

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