Right now, every NFL team is still mathematically alive in its division. After Sunday’s games, the Bears might not be.
The Bears would be eliminated from the NFC North race if they lose on Sunday and the Vikings win, via NFLPlayoffScenarios.com.
A loss on Sunday would drop the Bears to 3-8, and a win on Sunday would improve the Vikings to 9-1. That would mean the best-case finish for the Bears would be tying the Vikings at 9-8. But in that scenario, the Bears and Vikings would be tied in the first two tiebreakers, head-to-head and division record, and the Vikings would finish ahead of the Bears via the third tiebreaker, conference record. So if the Bears lose and the Vikings win on Sunday, the Bears cannot win the NFC North.
That’s the only playoff elimination scenario possible for Week 11. Every other team is guaranteed to remain alive in its division — mathematically, at least — for another week.