PFT’s NFL Week 13 2022 picks

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MDS is chip-chip-chipping away.

Three disagreements last week. He prevailed on two of them.

He went 11-5 for Week 12. I was 10-6.

My lead is down to 10. Currently, I’m 115-64-1. MDS is 105-74-1.

Here are our picks for Week 13. This week, we disagree on six games.

Bills (-4) at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots’ hopes of winning the AFC East will move from “slim” to “none” if they lose this game, and I think Josh Allen is going to get the better of Bill Belichick’s defense.

MDS’s pick: Bills 30, Patriots 20.

Florio’s take: The Pats don’t have the horses to match the Bills in points. The only question is whether there will be any Buffalo punts.

Florio’s pick: Bills 31, Patriots 24.


Steelers (-1) at Falcons

MDS’s take: Kenny Pickett had his best game in Monday night’s win over the Colts, and against a bad Falcons defense he should have another strong game as the Steelers win their second in a row.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 24, Falcons 21.

Florio’s take: The Steelers have a long way to go to get to the playoffs, but that won’t stop them from trying.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 27, Falcons 20.


Packers (-4) at Bears

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers is having his worst season, but the Bears’ defense will make him look like the Rodgers of old.

MDS’s pick: Packers 28, Bears 17.

Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers continues to own the Bears, even if he may be selling his stake soon.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, Bears 20.


Jaguars (-1) at Lions

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have improved significantly from last year, when they had the two worst records in the NFL, and I think this should be an entertaining game that goes down to the last minute, with the Lions coming out on top.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Jaguars 27.

Florio’s take: The Lions would be in great position to make a playoff run if they’d managed to beat the Bills. The Lions can still make things interesting, but they need to win this one to keep the possibility on track.

Florio’s pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 24.


Jets (+3) at Vikings

MDS’s take: I’m a Mike White believer. He’ll show that he’s been the Jets’ best quarterback all along and deliver a win in Minnesota.

MDS’s pick: Jets 20, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take: To beat the Vikings, you’ve got to blow them out. The Jets won’t be able to do that, and the Vikings will once again find a way, somehow.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Jets 20.


Commanders (-2.5) at Giants

MDS’s take: This is the biggest game of the day in terms of its playoff importance to both teams: The winner is in great shape to earn a wild card berth; the loser is not. I think the Giants, after their hot start, are coming back to earth, while the Commanders will keep winning with Taylor Heinicke.

MDS’s pick: Commanders 21, Giants 10.

Florio’s take: The fact that the Commanders are road favorites shows how well they’ve done in recent weeks, and how poorly the Giants have performed. It’s time for both trends to reverse a little bit.

Florio’s pick: Giants 23, Commanders 20.


Titans (+5.5) at Eagles

MDS’s take: I like the way the Titans are playing and I’m tempted to pick them to pull the upset, but I think it will be a close game in the fourth quarter and Jalen Hurts will do just enough to put the Eagles over the top.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 27, Titans 24.

Florio’s take: The Titans are too good to lose two in a row, even when they’re facing the best team in the NFC on their own field.

Florio’s pick: Titans 28, Eagles 23.


Broncos (+9) at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ offense is broken, and it’s not going to get fixed this season. This has the feel of an ugly game.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 13, Broncos 3.

Florio’s take: Both teams are frustrated. One of them is good enough to do something about it.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 20, Broncos 6.


Browns (-7) at Texans

MDS’s take: I’ll be rooting for the Texans to win in Deshaun Watson‘s return, but realistically I can’t pick the Texans to beat anybody right now.

MDS’s pick: Browns 17, Texans 14.

Florio’s take: The fans may be fired up about Deshaun Watson’s return, but the players likely won’t get all that riled up about it. Even if they did, what can they really do about it?

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, Texans 10.


Seahawks (-7.5) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Rams are an absolute mess, the worst defending Super Bowl team ever. Geno Smith and the Seahawks will win this one easily.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 14.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks get exactly what they need in order to get back on the right track.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 34, Rams 20.


Dolphins (+4) at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers are favored because they have the kind of defense that can slow down the high-scoring Dolphins offense, but I think Tyreek Hill is going to get open in the San Francisco secondary and the Dolphins will pull off the road upset.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 31, 49ers 27.

Florio’s take: When a great defense faces a great offense, take the great defense.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21.


Chiefs (-2) at Bengals

MDS’s take: Last year these two teams played a great game in the regular season and another great game in the AFC Championship Game, and I think we’ll see a third great game between Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow on Sunday. This time Mahomes’ team will come out on top.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 28.

Florio’s take: The Bengals love being under radar. It may not last much longer.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 27, Chiefs 23.


Chargers (-1.5) at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Chargers’ offense just isn’t as good as it should be, and I think the Raiders are going to upset them on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 24, Chargers 21.

Florio’s take: This is more of a coin toss than it would have been, but for the Raiders starting an unlikely November winning streak.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 20.


Colts (+11) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Colts’ defense should keep this game close, but their offense won’t do much of anything in Dallas.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 16, Colts 7.

Florio’s take: The Colts are doing the best they can to be competitive, but it just isn’t enough.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Colts 17.


Saints (+3.5) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: At some point the Buccaneers have to get things turned around, don’t they? Maybe this will be the week.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 17.

Florio’s take: With the Bengals and 49ers coming up, the Bucs need to take care of business when they can.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Saints 17.

40 responses to “PFT’s NFL Week 13 2022 picks

  1. Sometime before halftime, QB White will see how surreal it was beating the stripped down Bears defense at home last week.

  2. Re: Bills. You guys are living in the past.
    In weeks 1-5, the Bills had 3 blowouts. Since then, they have barely won their games by one score, losing to the Jets and not escaping the Vikings. Without Von Miller, the Bills pass rush is seriously diminished. Meanwhile NE has crushed the Jets and should have beat the Vikings save a bonehead running into the punter penalty.
    Look to NE to beat the Bills this time around.

  3. And now that we are comfortably in 3rd place in the AFCN it is a short 3 games to make up hop to first. Especially if we wind up splitting with the Bengals (which we already have) and Browns (Jan.8 in Acrisure) and sweep the Ravens (12/11 at home and NEW YEAR’S DAY Jan.1 away). Everything we want is still in our control! Never tell me the odds (said in Han Solo voice). Stay focused, humble, and bumptious! GO STEELERS!

  4. 174 0TDs 0INTs represents Pickett’s best game? The talking heads are right. Steelers fans should be elated.

  5. “When a great defense faces a great offense, take the great defense.”

    Even in the regular season?

  6. Bills, Steelers, Lions, Jets, Giants, Eagles, Dolphins, Bengals, Bucs.

  7. Guess I’m the one guy who actually likes the Pats tonight. Home, no Von Miller, Allen’s penchant to throw red zone INTs, Pats need it more, etc. Bills just let inferior teams stick around. You can afford to do that against Dan Campbell. Belichick? Maybe not. 21-20 Pats.

  8. This Bills fan likes the Pats and the points. Going to be an incredibly tight game that could go either way. Just remember the Pats won the 1st meeting last year and what that ended up meaning when they met in the playoffs.

  9. Last week I thought the Ravens would easily beat the Jags, but inconsistent play and another defensive meltdown led to a loss. The Broncos are really a bad team and the Ravens should win. But if I was a betting man I wouldn’t touch the Ravens, even straight up. You just don’t know what you are going to get on any given Sunday

  10. When did this year’s Ravens team decide to play like the 2000 team did by depending more on special teams to score points and the defense keeps the opposing offense in check?

    That’s not meant as a compliment.

    Ravens 19
    Broncos 7

  11. hahaha I absolutely adore the pathetic Steelers fans, you guys make my day. “Comfortably in 3rd place”…hahaha delusion only rivaled by cowboys fans

  12. As bad as the Packers are this year, they should beat the Bears by 14, IF Fields does not play. Otherwise it’s another loss for GB.

  13. Patriots 23 Bills 17 Bills will struggle to move the ball until the second half. Stevenson and the short pass game do just enough to keep Josh Allen off the field when it matters.

    Jets 26 Vikings 20 That Jets defense is scary probably the best in the division look for it to pick off Cousins multiple times and pull off the upset.

    Fins 31 49ers 24 High scoring affair with Tua to Waddle putting the Fins in first place.

    Ravens 31 Broncos 9 Wilson is about to get his you know what pushed in.

    Bucs 23 Saints 13 Dalton sucks on prime time
    look for him to channel his inner Jameis Winston and throw 3 picks. Brady to Godwin will put the mistakes in the TD column.

  14. So Florio, what happened when the great defense hosted Mahomes?

    They gave up 44 points. SF is 2-2 against teams now .500 or better. And they statistically have had the weakest schedule to date in the NFL. That defense looks great against teams with a .300 winning percentage.

  15. westernerd007 says:
    December 1, 2022 at 12:31 pm
    Guess I’m the one guy who actually likes the Pats tonight. Home, no Von Miller, Allen’s penchant to throw red zone INTs, Pats need it more, etc. Bills just let inferior teams stick around. You can afford to do that against Dan Campbell. Belichick? Maybe not. 21-20 Pats.
    ———————–
    The Patriots problem is they don’t have NFL caliber players starting on the OL tonight. That’s not great for Mac Jones. I hope Andrews can go.

  16. Why are the Jaguars favoured on the road in Detroit?
    Same record, Jacksonville has only one road victory, and the Lions have played surprisingly well the past month losing only to the Bills on a last second field goal in their past four games.

  17. Meanwhile NE has crushed the Jets
    —-
    10-3 on a walk off punt return TD is not “crushing” anyone imo

  18. Patriots and Bills split their season series last year, so it’s not out of the question that they could win tonight given their injuries. But…
    Buffalo is still the far better team and is the surer bet in their season finale game or if they repeat last season’s third matchup in the playoffs.

  19. Browns (-7) at Texans

    Florio’s take: The fans may be fired up about Deshaun Watson’s return, but the players likely won’t get all that riled up about it. Even if they did, what can they really do about it?

    ===

    I think more people need to be asking: Why have players been completely silent about Watson?

    It’s a pretty clear case. He’s an unrepentant serial abuser.

    Why are players okay with that? And what does that say about them?

  20. gronkhof says:
    December 1, 2022 at 12:10 pm
    Re: Bills. You guys are living in the past.

    ————-

    Anyone else see the irony in this?

  21. Titans still getting way too much love from both of these guys.
    They don’t beat teams with winning records, Wentz starting for the Commanders don’t count, and are now facing the club with best record in the NFL so far. There’s little reason to think why they could pull off the upset. They couldn’t even beat the Bengals at home even though Cincinnati was without Chase and Mixon.
    The only reason why they have a winning record is because they’re 3-0 in the worst division in football, the AFC South.

  22. Niners can only win if they can get pressure on Tua with their front 4. Hope we get Armstead back and Ebukam can bring his A game. Bosa will obviously bring heat.

  23. erfect72 says:
    December 1, 2022 at 1:15 pm
    So Florio, what happened when the great defense hosted Mahomes?

    They gave up 44 points. SF is 2-2 against teams now .500 or better. And they statistically have had the weakest schedule to date in the NFL. That defense looks great against teams with a .300 winning percentage.

    ——————————————————————————

    So not saying KC wouldn’t have still won, because Mahomes, but you’re leaving out the fact that they were missing 8 or so defensive starters which is hardly the litmus test for how well they would play against a good team.

  24. malcomreynolds says:
    December 1, 2022 at 1:31 pm
    Titans still getting way too much love from both of these guys.
    They don’t beat teams with winning records, Wentz starting for the Commanders don’t count, and are now facing the club with best record in the NFL so far. There’s little reason to think why they could pull off the upset. They couldn’t even beat the Bengals at home even though Cincinnati was without Chase and Mixon.
    The only reason why they have a winning record is because they’re 3-0 in the worst division in football, the AFC South.
    —————————————————

    The worst division in the NFL is the NFC South. No teams with a winning record. Bucs lead it at 5-6.

  25. My Broncos will have the biggest upset of the week.

    They’ve been waiting the whole year for this game, losing on purpose to psych out the Ravens.

    Broncos 3
    Ravens 2

    You heard it here.

  26. Packers – Bears.

    There is a lot riding on this game.

    Packers win and they dethrone the Bears as the NFL’s historic all-time winningest team. That’s a crown the Bears have worn since they were the Staleys in Decatur.

    No way Aaron would miss being part of that.

  27. legionofzoom says:
    December 1, 2022 at 2:03 pm
    malcomreynolds says:
    December 1, 2022 at 1:31 pm
    Titans still getting way too much love from both of these guys.
    They don’t beat teams with winning records, Wentz starting for the Commanders don’t count, and are now facing the club with best record in the NFL so far. There’s little reason to think why they could pull off the upset. They couldn’t even beat the Bengals at home even though Cincinnati was without Chase and Mixon.
    The only reason why they have a winning record is because they’re 3-0 in the worst division in football, the AFC South.
    —————————————————

    The worst division in the NFL is the NFC South. No teams with a winning record. Bucs lead it at 5-6.

    That’s fair, but where I’d argue is that the combined record of the teams in the NFC South is 18-29 while the AFC South is 16-27-2 and they have the worst team in the league the 1-9-1 Texans.
    Small differences for sure.

  28. Delusional Patsy fans think they are winning tonight. They are hanging their hopes on no Avon Miller all the while forgetting that 2 DE are coming back that have been out for the last 2-3 weeks. Good luck with that. Enjoy the basement in the AFCE for a long time to come.

  29. Steelers over Falcons – this game could easily go either way but I lean more towards the Steelers defense…

    Bucs over Saints – both oddly have similar issues… HC and OC don’t know how to scheme with all that talent.. I think Brady gives the Bucs the edge…

  30. I’m a Niners fan, but I’m picking the Dolphins in this game. Both teams play the same type of offense, but McDaniel knows more about the Niners on both sides of the ball, which gives him the edge.

  31. 1footinthegraveandtheotheronabananapeel says:
    December 1, 2022 at 2:56 pm
    Delusional Patsy fans think they are winning tonight. They are hanging their hopes on no Avon Miller all the while forgetting that 2 DE are coming back that have been out for the last 2-3 weeks. Good luck with that. Enjoy the basement in the AFCE for a long time to come.

    ——————————
    This sounds less like a delusional Pats fan and more like a nervous Bills fan trying to convince himself it wont happen. What you have going for you is that if both teams play to their full capacity the Bills win because they are simply the better team right now. But if they don’t play to capacity the upset could happen, and thats what you are afraid of. Just gonna have to sweat it out my friend, this is why they play the games.

  32. immypinthe416 says:
    December 1, 2022 at 1:31 pm
    gronkhof says:
    December 1, 2022 at 12:10 pm
    Re: Bills. You guys are living in the past.

    ————-

    Anyone else see the irony in this?

    ——————-

    The Bills were not good until the past couple years, the Patriots have not been good for three years. So the irony flows both ways to both sides of this debate.

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