Yes, the late-season benching of Derek Carr is a clear signal that the Raiders are done with him. Now that it has happened, the question becomes how and when the two sides will consciously uncouple.
Many are assuming Carr will be traded. It’s not nearly that simple.
As mentioned here, once or twice, Carr has $40.4 million in injury guarantees that become full guarantees on the third day after the 2023 waiver period. By benching Carr, the Raiders are hoping to ensure that Carr will be able to pass a physical before the day the injury guarantees convert.
The easiest and cleanest out would be to cut Carr before the guarantees shift from injury to full. Trading Carr become much more delicate.
First, the Raiders would have to find someone willing to take on a contract that includes $40.4 million in full guarantees, with $32.9 million due in 2023 and another $7.5 million applicable to 2024. Second, the Raiders would have to trust that the team that does an unofficial -- and completely unenforceable -- trade with the Raiders won’t back out after the guarantees vest.
By rule, either team can refuse to proceed with any trade before both teams communicate it to the league office. Until that happens, there’s no binding agreement.
It would be no different than, say, Josh McDaniels backing out of a verbal deal to become the coach of the Colts in early 2018. And the Colts, who will surely once again be looking for quarterbacks, could get the ultimate revenge on McDaniels by reaching a deal to trade for Carr before the guarantees vest and then saying, “Oops. Sorry. We changed our mind.”
The Raiders could protect themselves by getting Carr to agree to delay the guarantee trigger until, for example, the third day after the start of the league year in March. But why would Carr agree to do that? The Raiders are running him out of town; he comes off as a chump if he makes it any easier for them.
Carr’s response to any request the Raiders make of him should be “no.” As it stands, either he gets $40.4 million fully guaranteed, or he gets released more than a month before free agency otherwise starts. He should agree to no revision to that reality.
For the Raiders, the reality is that they’re done with Carr. They can try to make it look like they’ll keep him, but that would be nothing more than a ploy to increase their leverage in trade talks.
Sending him to the bench operates as a crossing of the Rubicon. The only question at this point is whether the Raiders cut him or trade him. Actually keeping him after benching him would represent the kind of dysfunction that most teams currently aren’t capable of pulling off.
Not even the Raiders.