PFT’s conference championship game picks

AFC Championship - Cincinnati Bengals v Kansas City Chiefs
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Here we go.

Four teams left. Two spots in the Super Bowl up for grabs. It’s time to pick winners in games that could go either way.

Last week, MDS went 3-1 in the divisional round. I was 2-2.

This week, we disagree on both games. Our selections appear below.


49ers (+2.5) at Eagles

MDS’s take: Over the course of the full season, the Eagles have been the better team. But in the last couple of months, since Brock Purdy became the 49ers’ starting quarterback, the 49ers have been better. I don’t want to discount the great season Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have had, and playing in Philadelphia is an advantage, but I think the 49ers are playing better football than the Eagles right now, and I’m picking the upset.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 24, Eagles 21.

Florio’s take: It’s still a quarterback-driven league. And Jalen Hurts is a far more accomplished quarterback than Brock Purdy. Yes, Purdy hasn’t lost a game yet. He also has yet to face a team like the Eagles, in a place like Philadelphia. Maybe he’ll make a clutch play that delivers a win. Maybe the 49ers are otherwise good enough that he won’t have to. Regardless, Hurts is the more proven quarterback, and I’ve got more faith in him to make a big play in a big spot, and/or to inspire his teammates at the right moment to do something that will make a difference. It will be a very slim difference.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 23.


Bengals (+1) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: If Patrick Mahomes were 100 percent healthy, the Chiefs would be favored. With Mahomes’ ankle possibly affecting him, the Bengals have been the favorites for most of the week, and it’s tempting to pick them — especially considering how well Joe Burrow has played in the playoffs so far in his young career. And yet I think even with Mahomes hobbling, this Chiefs team has the kind of offense that can attack the Bengals’ defense, and I’m going to pick Kansas City.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 23, Bengals 17.

Florio’s take: The Bengals are salty. The Chiefs are salty. The teams are great. The quarterbacks are elite. But something has to give. The Bengals are down by three offensive linemen. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an ankle injury. The Bengals did well last week with a depleted offensive line. Mahomes on one leg is still better than most quarterbacks. Here’s hoping for a classic. Another one that goes to overtime. And because I swore to myself (and at myself) after the Bengals thumped the Bills that I’d never pick against them again, I can’t start now.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 30, Chiefs 27 (OT).

60 responses to “PFT’s conference championship game picks

  1. I agree with Florio – Eagles vs. Bengals in the Super Bowl – but I would not bet the farm on it.

  2. “Yes, Purdy hasn’t lost a game yet. He also has yet to face a team like the Eagles, in a place like Philadelphia.”

    Have to laugh when the media covers a northeast team playing in a big game or series:

    How will the Astros deal with the Philly environment? Astros won.
    How will the Astros be able to cope with the Yankees crowd? Astros won.
    How will the Warriors handle the Boston crowd? Warriors won.

    And this is just last year.

  3. Mahomes has jumped the shark and will lose the AFCCG. Hurts is epically overrated and, after reading his own press clippings about how he is the GOAT, will lose the NFCCG.

  4. MDS’s pick: Chiefs 23, Bengals 17.

    ————-

    That seems like a really low score for these two teams.

  5. Two double digit wins — by Eagles and Bengals. Florio summed it up: QB play wins these games: Hurst>Purdy, Burrow>hobbled Mahomes. Both will connect on big plays down the field vs. suspect corners that will be the difference.

  6. I started watching the 49ers when McCaffrey showed up and wanted to see this rookie play. They are amazing but when I watched the Eagles play when Hurts was injured they looked horrible but then last week they looked unbeatable so I’m going with Hurts.
    How do you pick against the Bengals when they have won the last 3 meeting vs the Chiefs and an injured Mahomes. This SB will be a great one with the Bengals winning.

  7. Would it be possible to change the format next year of picking the games to include all the staff writers instead of just 2 people? Then we could see who really knows their stuff on this website.

  8. Thankfully, Florio has picked the Bengals! Chiefs fans everywhere thank you for that Kiss of Death!!

  9. Looking at these matchups, they have the potential to be classic slugfests where all parts of the teams live up to potential and it’s just the tiny margin that decides the win.

    But I get the feeling that some part of a couple of the teams will not work well and it will be tough sledding and a long day for them. Like the Bucs dismantling the Chiefs in the SB, or the Bills getting pounded last week.

    I hope it’s well-played close games, though. These do seem like the best-run and most balanced teams in the league, so they should be able to execute well.

    I have no idea who will win.

  10. Bengals have been counted out for 2 year, hard to bet against them. AFC champs who never really broke into anyones top 5 power rankings. KC has been anointed the king of the AFC by the media. Bengals have been treated as the third or fourth best team in the AFC even after beating KC in big games time after time. I think they finally slap a whoopin on the Chiefs (like lastweeks Bills game) to end all questions about who is the best moving forward. Its weird how it feels like the end of a dynasty that never was.

  11. Have to go Bengals vs Niners. For some reason Burrow and the Bengals have the Chiefs number and in the NFC, I just believe the Niners defense will carry the day.

  12. The Eagles are home, have a better QB, better OL, better pass rush and better secondary. Eagles cover.

    It’s really hard to bet against Joe Cool right now and the entire betting public seems to agree. With that said, when is the last time you were getting Mahomes at home with points? Yes please…Chiefs cover.

  13. I have future bets for the Eagles to take the NFC at +250 and Bengals to win the AFC at +500. I like both to win the game.

  14. The Niners getting by the Eagles in Philly would possibly be the biggest upset but if it happens it wouldn’t be a shocker. These games can go either way and all four teams deserve to be in them.

  15. If it were not for the Bills failing miserably I would have been perfect in the Divisional Round.

    Eagles 24 49ers 20 A close game that could go either way. However I give the edge to Philly because of the run game that seems to kill at least half the game clock. 49ers can win if they force a fumble or two but I do not see it here.

    Bengals 31 Chiefs 21 I would feel different if Mahomes were healthy but since he is not the Bengals will feast and sack Mahomes at least 4 times. Joe Mixon should get a lot of touches not just running the football either.

  16. It’s weird how the Niners are loaded at almost every position, the #2 seed and on a 12 game win streak and yet alot of people are talking as if the eagles are far and away the superior team. The same eagles team that barely got past the Texans and colts and lost at home to the commanders.

    Niners 27 Eagles 20

  17. Everyone saw Dallas wipe the floor with the Bucaneers and said Dak and the Cowboys were going to be hard to beat. Everyone saw the Eagles crush the Giants and have ratched it up and are now certain they can’t be beaten. We’ll see. Purdy’s first ever NFL game was around Thanksgiving. He already has the same or more playoff wins then both Dak and Hurts.

  18. The Bengals makeshift O-line did a great job against a Charmin soft Bills defensive line, but Chris Jones is a game wrecker and will be in Burrow’s lap. I wouldn’t bet anyone’s money on either game. Literally anything could happen in both games.

  19. I just can’t put any faith in Brock Purdy. He’s done an admirable job with a roster built to win, but if it came down to a last minute drive against the Eagles Defense, I don’t see him delivering.

  20. Both games are a toss-up. Definitely the four best teams in the league. A perfect set-up for a great day of football!!!

  21. Defense wins championships!! Niners even though I despise them!! Bengals own the Chiefs for some strange reason.

  22. chiefs will get after burrow better than the bills did, and that will be the difference. chiefs will game plan like the ravens did and the bills did not. coing flip game in the nfc, home team wins but take the points

  23. No matter the outcome, hoping for no serious injuries and that the officials DO NOT decide who wins and loses.

  24. It’s weird how the Niners are loaded at almost every position, the #2 seed and on a 12 game win streak and yet alot of people are talking as if the eagles are far and away the superior team. The same eagles team that barely got past the Texans and colts and lost at home to the commanders.

    Niners 27 Eagles 20
    __________________________
    Are you talking about the same 49ers team that lost to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons?

  25. Strange as it feels to say as a Bengals fan, I still think the Chiefs are the team to beat. Bengals are hot, but Chiefs have been the class of the AFC for so long I can’t assume they’ll fold easily.

  26. dave1716 says:
    January 26, 2023 at 12:49 pm
    Thankfully, Florio has picked the Bengals! Chiefs fans everywhere thank you for that Kiss of Death!!
    ——————————————————————————-
    I think you’re confusing Mike with Chris. If Cincy’s OL holds up they should win. They can beat KC. As for Philly, barring an injury to Hurts it should be a Philly victory, especially if the can apply pressure to Brock P. He hasn’t experienced sustained pressure yet.
    And remember, a rookie QB has never won a SB after all these years. And as good as SF and Purdy looks I don’t see that happening this season.
    Don’t confuse him with Joe Montana. I even see a fumble and/or a pick in his future on Sunday.

  27. These games this weekend will be good. Throwing the Elite word around and using it to describe QB Joe Burrow is a huge stretch.
    Joe Burrow had 6 games this season in which he threw only 1 TD pass & turned the ball over 3 times, was sacked 16 times and averaged a pedestrian 219 yards passing per game and under 6.5 yards gained per pass attempt in those same 6 games.
    Joe Burrow’s Bengals went 4-2 in those 6 games when most would be lucky to win 1 of them

    Was it Elite QB play or a damn good Defense that surrounds him as they deploy the 6th ranked overall Defense, a Defense ranked 8th in causing turn overs, 7th in rushing yards allowed, 4th in passing TD’s allowed, 4th in 1st downs allowed and 2nd in time of possession allowed ?

  28. Just remember Washington made this Philthy team look very ordinary and were gathering donations made by the fake QB, Jayleen. And SF is better than Washington on all facets of the game.

  29. Bengals & Eagles. I don’t think 9ers offense can keep up with Eagles. I think Mahomes injury starts to show midway through the game and announcers start making excuses once Bengals start pulling away

  30. That seems like a really low score for these two teams.

    —-

    It’s because with Mahomes possibly not 100% they should run the ball more which will shorten the game and limit each team on possessions.

  31. Eagles and 49ers are tough game to pick. The Eagles haven’t seen a defense even close to San Fran’s. And the 49ers haven’t seen an offensive or defensive line like the Eagles. Purdy hasn’t lost yet, so he’s definitely capable of coming into Philly and playing good enough to win. But Hurts is 15-1 this year and I’ve seen him win games on his own for them. I haven’t seen that yet from Purdy. Not saying he can’t do it, but I just haven’t seen it yet. So I’ll go with the Eagles in a close one with Hurts being the X-factor.

    I’ll go with Cincinnati in the other one. I keep hearing how hard it is to beat the same team 2..3..4 times, but yet I keep seeing it happen. So I’m not sure where that even comes from. The Chiefs haven’t beaten Burrow with a healthy Mahomes, so I can’t pick them to do it with a banged up one.

    Obviously both games feature teams that are very evenly matched, so I certainly won’t be surprised if I’m wrong.

  32. “but Chiefs have been the class of the AFC for so long I can’t assume they’ll fold easily.”
    ————————-
    What? Then how come they only won a SINGLE Super Bowl?

  33. madmike6568 says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:42 pm
    Defense wins championships!! Niners even though I despise them!! Bengals own the Chiefs for some strange reason.

    You do realize that the Eagles had the #1 pass defense…3rd all time in sacks and the #2 overall defense??

  34. madmike6568 says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:42 pm
    Defense wins championships!! Niners even though I despise them!! Bengals own the Chiefs for some strange reason.
    ========≠==========================={=====

    You do realize that the Eagles had the #1 pass defense…3rd all time in sacks and the #2 overall defense??

  35. Eagles over the 49ers. San Fran’s road record this year wasn’t that good. Lost in Chicago, Denver, and Atlanta. Needed OT to beat Vegas. And then there’s Kyle Shanahan’s track record in big games. Eagles cover.
    Bengals over the Chiefs. After last week’s dominating victory in Buffalo, I’m not sure how KC wins this game with a hobbled Mahomes. Chris Jones is a force for the Chiefs defensively, but they still give up way too many scores. They just don’t get enough consistent stops, and unless the injured Bengals’ O-line implodes, I don’t see them stopping Cincinnati from putting up significant points.

  36. jpk1456 says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:05 pm
    The Eagles are home, have a better QB, better OL, better pass rush and better secondary. Eagles cover.

    It’s really hard to bet against Joe Cool right now and the entire betting public seems to agree. With that said, when is the last time you were getting Mahomes at home with points? Yes please…Chiefs cover.
    —————-
    Your not getting Mahomes at home with points now either. Early in the week you were but as shown here its Bengals+1 so that means chiefs-1…I hope your not someone who actually bets

  37. NewYorkLion says:
    January 26, 2023 at 2:04 pm
    These games this weekend will be good. Throwing the Elite word around and using it to describe QB Joe Burrow is a huge stretch.
    Joe Burrow had 6 games this season in which he threw only 1 TD pass & turned the ball over 3 times, was sacked 16 times and averaged a pedestrian 219 yards passing per game and under 6.5 yards gained per pass attempt in those same 6 games.
    Joe Burrow’s Bengals went 4-2 in those 6 games when most would be lucky to win 1 of them

    Was it Elite QB play or a damn good Defense that surrounds him as they deploy the 6th ranked overall Defense, a Defense ranked 8th in causing turn overs, 7th in rushing yards allowed, 4th in passing TD’s allowed, 4th in 1st downs allowed and 2nd in time of possession allowed ?
    —————————————————————————————

    Considering Burrow threw 4/12 picks one opening day less than 2 weeks after an appendectomy your stats, although fascinating, are incorrect. Even still, stats do not tell the entire story of what a qb did to get the W. Yes he has had a very under the radar defense helping him but this guy makes game deciding plays every week. But yes, keep sleeping on the guy who should be the real NFL MVP with what he has done in changing the culture of an entire franchise.

  38. Football is also a game of chance. I didn’t see Hirts throw three passes that could’ve been intercepted by my 10 year old last week. Can’t say the same for Purdy. If he was challenged by the Dallas D, from what I’ve seen Philly takes it to another level. Can’t wait to see Deebo and Aiyuk try to go across the middle on Gardr Johnson and Epps. I’ll be looking for alligator arms. Those two bring it on every hit. I don’t know who wins this one. I can tell you it won’t be Pirdy pulling out a miracle. They are going to need to run the ball and chew a lot of clock.

  39. No one can convince me that the Bengals are any better than the Chiefs.
    4 times in a row?
    Nope. The Chiefs catch the breaks this time: 28-17

  40. These are really tough games to pick the winner.Let’s just hope that they’re great games that you go back to watch highlights from years down the road.On occasion I still watch the “Helmet Catch” in the Giants victory over the Patriots.
    Nothing wrong with that

  41. Niners will beat Philly in a very tight low scoring affair. Something like 13 to 10…really low.

    If Mahomes’ mobility isn’t limited the Chief take this one in a high scoring game. 33 to 31. If Mahomes is limited then the Bill get the win 31 to 23.

  42. Philly looked great against a really bad Giants team last week. This week they are facing a legitimate contender in the 49ers and that defense. It won’t be a cake walk this time. 49ers in an upset. Bengals over Chiefs in a close one. Just my guess…

  43. daphne49er says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    No matter the outcome, hoping for no serious injuries and that the officials DO NOT decide who wins and loses.
    _____________________________________________

    Injuries already happened. How do you think the Bengals got there?

  44. Eagles will beat the Niners. Purdy doesn’t have quite enough.
    Chiefs best the Bengals. The Chiefs avoid late game mistakes.

    Kelce vs. Kelce in the Super Bowl.

  45. nite2al says:
    January 26, 2023 at 4:27 pm

    daphne49er says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    No matter the outcome, hoping for no serious injuries and that the officials DO NOT decide who wins and loses.
    _____________________________________________

    Injuries already happened. How do you think the Bengals got there?

    ===

    By being the best team in the division and having a QB who can actually complete a season and who has won 5 times as many playoff games as has Lamar Jackson, maybe?

  46. Carroll Prescott says:
    January 26, 2023 at 2:10 pm
    Just remember Washington made this Philthy team look very ordinary and were gathering donations made by the fake QB, Jayleen. And SF is better than Washington on all facets of the game.
    ——————————————————————————————————————————– Remember how the Raiders carved up the 49ers elite defense. Eagles 34 Niners 20

  47. nite2al says:
    January 26, 2023 at 4:27 pm
    daphne49er says:
    January 26, 2023 at 1:58 pm

    No matter the outcome, hoping for no serious injuries and that the officials DO NOT decide who wins and loses.
    _____________________________________________

    Injuries already happened. How do you think the Bengals got there?

    Bengals beat Ravens 4/5 times. You’d have the bye Iif your defense didn’t choke a handful of games away.

    There is an old adage- “The best ability is availability.” This ain’t college. The season isn’t 10 games.

    At least you can rest well knowing you’re the preseason champs!!!

  48. “Josh Morgan says:
    January 26, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Considering Burrow threw 4/12 picks one opening day less than 2 weeks after an appendectomy your stats, although fascinating, are incorrect. Even still, stats do not tell the entire story of what a qb did to get the W. Yes he has had a very under the radar defense helping him but this guy makes game deciding plays every week. But yes, keep sleeping on the guy who should be the real NFL MVP with what he has done in changing the culture of an entire franchise.” —————————————————–

    My stats are spot on in those 6 games, he turned the ball over three times in those 6 games, you failing to realize that a fumble lost by Burrow is a turnover does not make my stats incorrect, it means what you thought you read was not what was written.

  49. The weather in Philly is calling for rain,so, the 49ers are used to that. Therefore the 49ers shal prevail 30 to 24. Kansas City will be below freezing all day, which will help ice Mahomes ankle. KC wins 35 to 31.

  50. Niners are undefeated since mccaffrey joined the team. Philly’s solid all the way around I think coaching gives the niners the edge 23-20. Purdy and Hurts played in a college shoot out when Hurts had way better talent so it should be fun to watch.

    Burroughs stadium will be quiet as Cincy wins 31-21.

  51. I think SF can defeat Philly only if they win the field position and time of possession aspects of the game. Their O-line run-blocks exceedingly well, so IF McCaffrey et al. are healthy, they might be able to grind out yards and chew up the clock, taking advantage of Philly’s run D, which was weak for most of the season (but improving). The Eagles’ pass D is 1st rate, on the other hand. SF would do well to avoid long-yardage, drop-back passing situations with that nasty Eagles D-line and hard-hitting secondary.

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