PFT’s Super Bowl LVII picks

Super Bowl LVII - Kansas City Chiefs Media Availability
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This is it. The last game of the year.

Patrick Mahomes has never been the underdog in a postseason game in his career. It happens now.

Is that an accurate reflection of the edge between the teams? Is it something that will motivate Mahomes and company. Read on to see whether MDS and I believe it will be the Chiefs or Eagles hoisting a Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.

Chiefs (+1.5) vs. Eagles

MDS’s take: The Chiefs and Eagles have been the two best teams over the course of the 2022-23 season. That doesn’t always happen; a great team can get cold at the wrong time, or suffer key injuries late in the season, or simply get upset in the unpredictable single-elimination format of the NFL playoffs. But the Chiefs and Eagles, despite actually having some injuries late in the season and some things go against them down the stretch, were the best teams all year and now find themselves facing off in the Super Bowl.

So how will the Super Bowl be decided? I think the primary difference between the two teams is at quarterback, where I believe Patrick Mahomes can do more than Jalen Hurts. Hurts has had a great season, and may have won the league MVP over Mahomes if he hadn’t been sidelined by a shoulder injury late in the year, but Mahomes can threaten a defense all over the field in a way that neither Hurts nor any other quarterback can. I think Mahomes is going to make the difference, and is the reason the Chiefs will win.

If I’m wrong, I’ll be wrong because of the Eagles’ relentless pass rush. Philadelphia has a total of 78 sacks in the regular season and postseason, a total that only the 1984 Bears and 1985 Bears have topped. With Mahomes possibly still hobbled by his high ankle sprain, if the Eagles’ rush can get to him, that changes the game significantly.

Ultimately, however, I see a close game that the Eagles may lead much of the way, but one that will end with Mahomes making big plays in the fourth quarter and winning his second Super Bowl.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 24, Eagles 21.

Florio’s take: For the first time since 2017, both No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl. And, on paper, the Eagles are just a little bit better than the Chiefs.

But the Chiefs have the one thing the Eagles don’t. As in one-five. 15. Patrick Mahomes.

Five straight AFC Championships at home. Three Super Bowl appearances. And, if he’s ever going to come close to Tom Brady‘s seven titles, it’s time to get No. 2.

The ankle is more than good enough. The team around him is more than good enough. Unless the Eagles methodically suffocate the Chiefs with the running game and in turn get to Mahomes and sack him repeatedly, this one should be close and it should be exciting and it should come down to the wire with the Chiefs finding a way to pull it off.

Kansas City has fought through more adversity than the Eagles, especially in the playoffs. That matters. Kansas City also has the experience edge in the Super Bowl. That matter’s, too.

What matters most is the presence of the best quarterback in football, a sure-fire Hall of Famer who may eventually earn a spot in the Canton Upper Room proposed by Deion Sanders. Mahomes.

The Magic Man. The man among boys. The guy who finds a way to move the ball, to score points, and to do it in a way that is always far more entertaining than anything anyone else can muster.

It’s time to win his second. On his way to possibly more.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24.

93 responses to “PFT’s Super Bowl LVII picks

  1. When the dust settles you have to go with your gut. PM15 is too talented to bet/pick against. Chiefs 27 Eagles 21

  2. As an Eagles fan, I fear that the Eagles are taking too much credit for beating a Niners te4am that had no quarterback.

  3. Juju Smith Schuster and Marques Valdes Scantling are cast offs. No way the Chiefs win this. They are way overrated and I’m no Eagles fan. No Tyreek Hill no Mecole Hardman no top end speed. It’s time for the Mahomes love fest to end for this year. They couldn’t get in the end zone against the Bucs. It doesn’t matter how many lineman were new they got squashed on the big stage and the Eagles have plenty of Super Bowl experience. Andy Reid is just as prone to lose the big game as he is to win. By the way Suh was part of that game plan. I’m sure he’s knows a lot about how a defense beats Mahomes in a super bowl. Eagles 31 Chiefs 21

  4. The O/U should be at least 65. Both Ds are good but this game will open up after Q1. You heard it here.

  5. Five straight AFC Championship games at home and 1 Super Bowl title. Mahomes isn’t as clutch in the biggest of moments as he’s being credit for. Eagles use the Tampa blueprint to suffocate Mahomes, who has a weaker supporting cast than in year’s past, and pull out a closely contested victory. Eagles 27, Chiefs 24.

  6. I’m going Eagles. The offensive line is so good that they can keep Mahomes from getting on the field. Eagles 42 – Chiefs 23.

  7. Game are winning the trenches, I like the eagles chances just a bit. Unless Philly chokes they come out on top. Also, I’ve been watching the chiefs for years and if they don’t keep him in check the eagles will lose !!!

  8. I think this Super Bowl won’t be close. A huge blowout by Kansas City where Philadelphia won’t even be competitive. Along the lines of Chiefs 31, Eagles 10.

  9. EAGLES 41, Chiefs 31. Shout out to the 49ers players who will probably cry even harder come Monday. LOL

  10. Good for you guys, much respect. I’m exhausted from hearing Philadelphia has the better team. Pooh. Call it 27 – 20 Chiefs.

  11. tejastim says:
    February 10, 2023 at 5:54 pm
    Five straight AFC Championship games at home and 1 Super Bowl title. Mahomes isn’t as clutch in the biggest of moments as he’s being credit for. Eagles use the Tampa blueprint to suffocate Mahomes, who has a weaker supporting cast than in year’s past, and pull out a closely contested victory. Eagles 27, Chiefs 24.

    The Eagles pass rush is fierce, but KC had 3 backups and 2 others playing out of position on the O line against TB due to injury. The weaker supporting cast was the #1 scoring offense in the NFL and better than last year. Expecting a great game and a close one.

  12. I haven’t heard one ‘Expert’ with an opinion that Hurts will play lights out yet , like its impossible.That point spread is so close because they don’t know if Hurts is close to 100% or not . If he is they’ll crush the chiefs.

  13. I see a big comeback victory by the Chiefs. It’s been that kind of year. And just like with the Patriots and Falcons in 2017, one side has the far more experienced coach and better quarterback, and the other side is coming off of a cakewalk in the NFC title game.

  14. Mahomes is great and the media want that “chasing Brady” storyline, but I’m here to tell you Philly has some straight dawgs. SF got chippy with them cause they didn’t back down but punched back. Gonna be tight and low scoring. I’m leaning Eagles but never count Mahomes out. Let’s Go!!

  15. Philthy will be beaten badly and everyone will realize that hurts is not in the same league as Mahomes. Philthy fans will disappear from here on Monday

  16. mtripses says:
    February 10, 2023 at 5:39 pm
    When the dust settles you have to go with your gut. PM15 is too talented to bet/pick against. Chiefs 27 Eagles 21


    Since when has anyone referred to Mahomes as PM15??? Do they do that in KC? Yikes

  17. Mahomes gonna be running for his life all day Sunday. He can’t be who is if he is doing that. It will feel like Super Bowl LV 2.0. Eagles 34 Chiefs 13

  18. Both the Chiefs and the Eagles blew out the 49ers. So it’s definitely the best NFC team and probably the best AFC team between a much closer field of teams there: I think the Chiefs come in with a stellar game plan to stop the Eagles run game. They make it all about what can Hurts do in the passing game. At that point it’s all about if they can keep up with the high scoring Chiefs.

  19. I think Hurts running will be the X factor in this game. It will open up the Eagles running game, allowing them to control the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes hand. Birds go out to 21-7 lead at the half, and hold on for a 27-24 victory.

  20. “On paper the eagkes are a little bit better”
    In what world are they a “little better?”

    Qb- chiefs, slight edge
    Rb- eagles
    WRs- eagles, chiefs are not solid there
    TE- chiefs but eagles are solid there
    OLine- eagles
    DLine- eagles, easy
    LB- eagles
    Secondary- eagles

    Heck even chiefs have had issues in special teams……..

    If you took away the names of the teams and just watched the two all year, no way you pick the chiefs

  21. radar773 says:
    February 10, 2023 at 5:45 pm
    As an Eagles fan, I fear that the Eagles are taking too much credit for beating a Niners te4am that had no quarterback.

    And they took care of business and won pretty handily as you would expect. Should be a good game, I think pretty low scoring because both defenses are good – Philly can get to Mahomes with just 4, Eagles 23 KC 19.

  22. If the Chiefs can hold the Eagles to 21-24 points like these two predictions then I agree the Chiefs win the game. Problem is, I doubt they’re going to be able to hold them to just 3 TDs.

  23. Eagles will get to Mahomes and his injury will be too much to over come. This game will be physical.

  24. doubleogator says:
    February 10, 2023 at 6:26 pm
    Strength of schedule, Eagles had the second easiest schedule in the NFL…Chiefs 27-21

    Chiefs strength of schedule : .453
    Eagles strength of schedule : .470

    Philadelphia played in a division that zero teams with a losing record, and were amongst the three who made the playoffs.
    KC meanwhile had to deal with the massively overhyped and massively underachieving division that had two teams with more than 10 losses and the Chargers who were bigger frauds than the Vikings.
    The only way the Eagles lose this game is if they decisively lose the turnover battle. They are simply the better team at almost every spot save for QB and TE. And those two simply won’t be enough for the Chiefs to win unless they get help from elsewhere.

  25. Everyone is over-thinking this. Ranking the best individual players: Eagles have 12 of the Top 16. Ranking by position groups, Eagles dominate as well — and the advantage Chiefs have at QB and TE aren’t as great as the media wants you to believe. Coaching? Reid is 1-2 in Super Bowls, and is always good for a blunder or two. Sirianni will stick to the “go for it” formula that led Eagles to wire the field in the NFC. Eagles have best record in NFL (9-1) vs. teams with winning records. In only loss with Hurts they turned the ball over times (and still almost won). If they turn the ball over 4 times Sunday they will likely lose. Anything less than that and they win, a clean game and they win comfortably — 34-20.

  26. I’m sick of this Mahomes love fest. He is great no doubt. QBs don’t win SuperBowls ALONE.. Eli Manning beat Brady not once but twice. Nick Foles beat Foles better the Brady? No. QBs win games..DEFENCE wins championships Eagles have a better Defence,offensive Line, better WRs, and our TE is not Kelce but he is a top 5 TE. Philly’s defense will control both lines and our CBs are going to smother their WRs. K.C. will be able to play small ball with RBs out in the flat and Kelce will be a problem. But our WRs are going to torch this VERY young and inexperienced CBs. Once Philly gets a 10 point lead, they will control the clock and the defense will do what they thrive on..forcing turnovers. They’ve done it all year. Philly wins by 10. Philly knows all too well that Reid is a great coach..but he chokes in big games and his weakness is game time adjusting and clock management. Sorry Big Red. We still love ya’ just not this Sunday.

  27. Eagles 0
    Chiefs 0

    Reminds me of the fight between Bruce Lee and O’Hara in ‘Enter The Dragon.’ Who’s Lee and who’s O’Hara? Let the game begin . . . Gaa!

  28. Eagles have Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, three great RBs. They will light it up on Sunday.

  29. THANKS FLORIO for picking against the Eagles once again. Now I’m even more confident in an Eagles victory.

  30. No Tyrek Hill is huge. Aging Kelce. Ankle. Eagles D fresh and loaded. Chiefs shouldn’t even be here. Eagles 31 Chefs 24

  31. First Snoopy Bowl where there is only ONE starting QB. Jayleen Hurts is never a QB – he runs and runs and runs – he is getting as bad as Lame from Baltimore.

    KC 35, Philthy 10

  32. People seem to be forgetting that Mahomes lost 9-31 just a few years ago. He’s the best QB in the league, but how’s that supposed to help his O-Line block better?

    The eagles have the 3rd highest number of sacks all time this season.

  33. @Janvanflac….

    Your wrong just saying Florio picked the Eagles to beat SF and the reason he gave was that they had the better QB just sayin

  34. Jalen hurts is the best rb to play qb. Chiefs make him be a qb and read def. Chiefs win.

  35. Here is why Philly wins:

    QB: KC
    TE: KC
    Dline: Eagles
    Oline: Eagles (Yes, KC is the best pass protecting Oline this season, and Mahomes is part of the reason)
    RBs: Eagles (although there will be focus on passing to KC RB)
    WRs: Eagles (Mecole Hardaman is out. Juju, Kardias, and Valdes-Scantling are not better than AJ and Devonta)
    Corners: Eagles
    Defense: Eagles (Chris Jones is not enough)
    Offense: Tie (Eagles run game is good and they can pass too. We know what KC can do)

    Other Reasons:
    – Eagles can double Travis Kelce and rush 4 and still get pressure and let their corners play man.
    – Run game plus defense is big factor for Eagles (people can kid themselves about lack of competition. Yes, the Eagles benefited from an easier schedule, but there were 16 teams that had the easier schedule. Where are they?)
    – Eagles have been disrespected and discredited for two weeks and now are the ones having something more to prove than the Chiefs, which will play a factor. Philly will not say it, but if I understand my hometown, they are not happy.
    – A partially healthy Mahomes will not be enough alone to be the difference of a very good Eagles roster. Eagles have Super Bowl experience on the team as well who are captains. I think Jason Kelce has a little advice for playing his brother, too.
    – Way too much emphasis has been put on the type of QB that Hurts is and what he can do. The bottom line is the the Eagles have beat teams in all different kinds of ways this year, and the Eagles might have had two more wins if Jalen doesn’t miss games.

    Eagles 34 KC 20

  36. Eagles are one of the most overrated, fraud teams to ever be gifted a free Superbowl berth.

    This game will be over by the third quarter.

  37. The Chiefs win by 7
    The eagles are think they’re going in there like it’s the 49ers – 2nd easiest schedule and the NFC championship was a no contest due to qb injury .
    The people comparing the chiefs to what they were against Tampa have no clue as to what they’re talking about . That team was 2 years ago with a completely different line . The line held up against the so called ferocious pass rush of the bengals and will hold up against the eagles .

  38. I don’t really care who wins cause either way 1 of the 2 most obnoxious fan bases in the NFL is going to win. Bad time to be in Phoenix. But Philly has continually proven me wrong all year, so I’ll turn the tables. Philly 31 to 27.

  39. Philly D most sacks this year
    Not many weapons for Mahomes
    Philly eats up clock running the ball
    Eagles 34 Chiefs 24

  40. Not a fan of either, but Chiefs have had their turn(s).. I’d like to see someone new on top.

    I don’t believe in the Chief’s defense at this level. I think the Eagles offensive line will dominate. In fact, I’m guessing the Eagles win with a more dominant performance than the score shows.

    Eagles: 31
    Chiefs: 24

  41. I am a Chiefs fan, but I think this will be a close game.

    A lot of the things the eagles fans are saying in their comments sound exactly like what the bengals fans were saying before the AFC Championship game. It’s best to control your overconfidence. The comments are not accurate to what I have seen from my team this year.
    That young secondary of the chiefs played tough against the best receiving trio in NFL that bengals team had. And our OL and DLine are solid enough to give you fits of your receivers can’t get open for a few seconds. Better hope hurts does not have to throw you to a win.

  42. 38-21 Eagles. Too well built.The chiefs cant stop the eagles running game without loading the box don’t have the corners to hold up one on one against Brown and Smith. And the eagles pass rush can get pressure with 4 and force Mahomes to be patient. I’m no eagles fan but Howie Roseman is the best GM in football.

  43. We’ve seen that the Chiefs are capable of anything and can never be written off. But it feels like they’re coming in with just a bit too much wear and tear, where the Eagles seem to just be hitting their stride and running at 100%.

    On the other hand, experience counts, and the Chiefs have a big edge in that department. Can the Eagles pull rabbits out of hats and win games when they’re pushed to the limit? Maybe.

    I feel like one of these teams is going to be a little off and will struggle. Just not sure which.

  44. It will be close until the opening kickoff, then the Chiefs will dominate. Chiefs win 47-11

  45. If the Lions had made it in and to the superbowl I’d say Lions 52-Chiefs 28. Given they didn’t I think this one will be closer and Mahomes comes out on top – 34-31. Pacheco’s a big reason why Philly d-line won’t accomplish what TB’s did.

  46. I get KC fans picking their team.

    But anyone else picking KC either doesn’t understand football or is star struck with Mahomes.

    Philly has the better offensive and defensive lines. They also have the better defense in general. Finally KC will throttle down their pass rush, just as SF had to, to account for Hurts.

    Not only will Philly win. It won’t be particularly close.

  47. The Chiefs have four Super Bowl battle-tested Hall of Fame bound superstars in Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones and Frank Clark. Eagles have, Fletcher Cox? The Chiefs coach/OC/DC have a nice collection of Super Bowl trophies. Eagles coaching staff has, nothing, an ex-Charger coach and an ex-Colt coach. Chiefs 41-17.

  48. The Eagles will fly, fly, fly. Eagles will control the line. Best O-Line in football. Over 150 rushing yards. We gonna see dem boys fly. What happens when the birds are underestimated in the big one. Ask Terrific Tom.

    Here we go. Eagles 27, Chiefs 23. Ship the gold to Delco!

  49. Not playing Josh Johnson this week. Best QB Eagles faced all year is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 40 and won. Mahomes is better.

  50. Why are you all picking the Eagles? You’ve said year after year after year that a running QB can’t win the Superbowl. And yes, you said it with all your ridiculous reasons.

  51. No matter how much the league wants to tell us that offense is the biggest thing in the game, they are wrong. Defense wins games. Defense wins the biggest games. The Chiefs have played tight games throughout their playoff run while the Eagles defense has smoked both their playoff game opponents. Look for the Eagles to win and win big. 31 to 16. I don’t care how much Mahomes tells us his leg is good to go, he hasn’t faced a D-line like the Eagles all season long. If he is even half a step “slower” he’ll be sacked 5 times. If he’s 100% then he’ll escape two of those and only go down three times.

  52. The powers that be want the Chiefs to win, now that Brady has filled his retirement papers for the HOF 2028 Class. Chiefs 26 Eagles 20.

  53. Name me the last Super Bowl where the best QB beat the best team. Doesn’t happen.

    Birds play bully ball and control both LOS

    24-21 Philly

  54. I wouldn’t bet on the outcome but the Eagles have the better offensive and defensive lines. They also don’t turnover the football nor rack up penalties. They win if they play a clean game. Big if.

  55. Media and NFL needs Chiefs to win to keep up the idea that only QBs matter. Yes Mahomes is extraordinary but the best O Line in the NFL and the best D Line in the NFL means advantage Eagles. Never liked Philly but would be great to see that teams matter not just QBs.

  56. The Chiefs will jump out to a 17+ point lead before the dirty birds have 100 total yards, and then the nation will see why running QB’s can’t win in the NFL. Running QB’s have a difficult time playing catch up.

    Chiefs 38 – dirty birds 24.

    The game will be over by halftime!

  57. Dang the disrespect is real for a def thats had the most sacks since the 84-85ish bear team. Philly got some jyds in the secondary. Also jalens no patty homeboy but hes not a huge step down either. I may be biased…..just look at my handle. Im all in on my beloved eagles (led by our MVP jalen hurts) getting their 2nd ring and showing why mr hurts shoulve been either mvp or cpoty. In hurts i trust….cuz hurts is a philly thing. Fly Eagles Fly……. No Soar Eagles Soar

  58. Why the Eagles will win: The Chiefs have not been great in the Super Bowl. They got thumped by the Bucs and were a missed pass by Jimmy G. from losing to the Niners. Every time you think the Chiefs will win by 15 they lose or win by 3.

    Why the Chiefs will win: I just can’t get past the Eagles facing Daniel Jones and the Niners 9th string quarterback to get to the Super Bowl.

    Final verdict: Take the Chiefs and the points and bet the farm.

  59. Mahomes won regular season MVP. Statistically, that means the Eagles should win the Super Bowl.

  60. I’ve been hearing a lot about how the Eagles had a tough division since 3 of 4 teams made the playoffs and were 3 of 4 of the last teams standing in the NFC.

    But does anyone think the Giants and Cowboys were that good? They both crumbled, badly, when facing legit playoff opponents. I think the NFC East “doing that well” was more about a generally awful conference and the weak non-division opponents they got this year – AFC South and NFC North is about as easy an assignment as you could get this season.

    So – good teams, yes, but not as special as the outcome made it seem. And, of course, the Eagles were handed the championship after SF lost its QB.

    None of this means the Eagles aren’t a really good team. But they’re also the least-tested SB team I can recall. It’s strange to get all the way to this final game without really knowing the measure of a team.

  61. I need company in the only ‘One Ring’ win club so hoping the Eagles win this one, which will have both Patrick and Jalen with one ring a piece just like I do. Who needs SB wins when I have 4 MVP awards to MY name which is what matters most to me.


  62. Eagles biggest mistake this year was running Hurts so much, that injury was inevitable. A fully healthy Jalon Hurts would make the Eagles a true favorite. How the Eagles are a favorite in this game is odd. Everyone hails the Chiefs & Patrick M. As they should. But, facing the Eagles pass rush is something the Chiefs haven’t come across. Andy Reid is smart enuf to know this & will get rid of the ball quick or run the ball. Eagles MUST contain their defense left to right covering any holes the Chiefs tend to exploit. Unlike what the Bengals did allowing Maholmes to limp to his right to seal that game. Should be a good game, Eagles face an uphill battle. If Eagles get out in front, they’ll hold on. Eagles win.

  63. It doesn’t matter that Mahomes is a bit better than hurts, the Eagles are a better team, particularly both their front lines, Chiefs are also banged up more than the Eagles.
    Unless the Eagles & Hurts Choke?
    I can’t see the Chiefs winning Eagles 34 Chiefs 14

  64. The idea that Mahomes is only “a little better” than Hurts is a joke. The difference is as wide as the grand canyon. Mahomes is a generational talent. Hurts is a guy that lost his job at Alabama and had to transfer to a lesser team just so he could play.

  65. I like Mahomes, very happy to see him stand for Jesus and proud to call him a brother in Christ. But I’m gonna have to pick against him and the Chiefs. The Eagles are too good and it wasn’t just the 49ers game. They also dominated the Giants. Sirianni is an underrated coach who’s clearly done a tremendous job with the team. Eagles by a TD.

  66. sbmvpnickfoles says:
    February 11, 2023 at 12:19 am
    Not playing Josh Johnson this week. Best QB Eagles faced all year is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 40 and won. Mahomes is better.


    whups had this wrong. The Pack put up 33 and lost. It was Dak that put up 40 on that ‘dominant’ Philly D. Goff put up over 30 as well. Mahomes is better.

  67. Crazy how so many people had this game
    Wrong by a long shot . Some of you called a close game but so many others declared it was going to be a dominant defensive performance by the eagles and that the Chiefs would barely put up 17 or 20 points …

    The eagles d made the difference just not the way fans
    Expected they would .

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