Betting odds are out for Derrick Henry’s next team

Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans
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The Titans reportedly are shopping running back Derrick Henry. And the sports books are taking wagers on the identity of his next team.

PointsBet has installed the Dolphins as a +400 favorite. I’d pass on that one; coach Mike McDaniel is from the Kyle Shanahan school of multiple running backs. McDaniel wouldn’t want to put excessive financial eggs in a single tailback’s basket.

The Bengals also are at +400. It’s intriguing, but why wouldn’t they just keep Joe Mixon? Yes, Henry’s better at his best, but if they move on from Mixon, it wouldn’t be to swap out one expensive back for another. It would be to go cheaper.

The Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles come in at +500. Buffalo and Philly make a ton of sense; if Henry is willing to do a reasonable deal in the hopes of chasing a championship, those would be the places to go.

The Bears, Broncos, and Falcons land at +800. In Atlanta, Henry would be reunited with former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

Next are the Ravens and Lions at +1000, and the Chargers and Giants at +1400.

Whoever trades for Henry may have to be ready to pay him. Chances are that the possibility of a trade emerged from his desire to rip up the last year of his current contract and get a new deal, before another season of wear and tear pushes him closer to his tackle football shelf life.

Henry is due to make $10.5 million this year, the final season of his current contract.

35 responses to “Betting odds are out for Derrick Henry’s next team

  1. Would love to see him pared with Jettas if Vikings had any draft capital with which to acquire him (which they don’t).

    Vikings need a back that can get positive yards on 1st down which is something Dalvin cannot consistently do. He wouldn’t have to be a game breaker with MN, we have JJ for that.

  2. Ravens should go after him. Run right, run left, run all the time. That way Lamar doesn’t have to throw it further than his abilities – 5-10 yd conversions to Andrews. $35mill+/yr for a guy averaging 15 passes per game. Makes sense.

  3. He is absolutely the kind of back the Bills need, and he would complement Cook perfectly. It’s hard to see how they could pull it off, though.

    It would be fun to see it happen. I’d guess that the “window is closed” comments would quiet down for a bit.

  4. This is a trade, so I would imagine the Titans would prefer to ship him to the other conference. Eagles, I suppose Detroit. Both of them have draft capital to deal, too. Chicago, Atlanta and why not Carolina and New Orleans as well?
    .

  5. I’d like to see the Steelers take him. Then draft the best blocking back they can find and bring back the Glory days of Steelers football. Running the ball down people’s throats while grinding away the clock and having a punishing defense waiting on the sidelines.

  6. I would guess the Dolphins, also. They cannot make a splash in the first rounds, so they must build via free agency. Mike McDaniel might like RB by committee, but if Ross and Grier want Henry, the second-year coach does not have enough juice yet to push back. The Dolphins always seem to add a big-name free agent every off-season.

  7. “ The Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles come in at +500. Buffalo and Philly make a ton of sense; if Henry is willing to do a reasonable deal in the hopes of chasing a championship, those would be the places to go.”

    But not the Chiefs?

  8. The Broncos can’t really be in the hunt, right? How many years can a team go without a first round draft pic?

  9. Eagles would my bet. They have the 10th and 30th picks in this years draft, so the 30th may be expendable. They’re likely going to lose Miles Sanders in free agency. Also, a power back like Henry would reduce the need for Hurts to risk himself so often on short yardage plays

  10. Given the breaking news about Mixon, maybe having Derrick Henry would be less of headline grabber and a better running back at any price.

  11. endlesswhiningsounds says:
    March 7, 2023 at 1:47 pm
    This is a trade, so I would imagine the Titans would prefer to ship him to the other conference. Eagles, I suppose Detroit. Both of them have draft capital to deal, too. Chicago, Atlanta and why not Carolina and New Orleans as well?
    ————————————
    If the Eagles could afford Henry, then why would they not just keep their Pro Bowl RB and save a traded pick as well? Detroit has a 1,000 yard back. Chicago has a running QB, so why would a top RB be of need? ATL has a 1,000 yard running back. Carolina has Foreman. NO has Alvin Kamara. Would Henry be an upgrade on some of these teams? Yes, but those teams have holes to fill.

  12. Great player but no thanks for the Bears- too many good young guys coming out in the draft.

  13. I can see Derrick Henry and the Titans #11 pick being traded to the Lions so the Titans can move up to #6 and possibly nab one of the top 4 QBs. The Lions barely missed the playoffs last year, so they are not some cellar dwelling team, and the Lions have the cap space to pay him, where the Eagles do not.

  14. Jeez this profession is brutal. I know it is a young man’s game and all that, but it’s still hard for me to comprehend that an elite athlete is considered to be almost at the end, and being shopped around, before they even turn 30.

  15. Trading Derrick Henry will not yield a first round pick, so that doesn’t mean teams without one this year are out of the running.
    What the market is for a 29 year old running back is probably limited to what Henry is looking for. If it’s cash, that probably eliminates most contending teams, if it’s a title and he’s willing to play for a cheaper price his choices are the ones mentioned most often here.
    Makes the most sense for the Bills, Eagles, and Dolphins. If Henry has a choice in the matter we’ll see what matters most at this stage of his career.

  16. KC doesn’t have the run blocking needed for Henry. Not sure Mahomes, Allen or Burrow would want an expensive older back when they could use that money on a proven slot receiver who can run, catch and block, and also be under 27 years old.

  17. Eagles won’t be trading for Henry. They already have to find a way to pay Hurts, Brown, Smith, Goedert, and a few standout offensive linemen and that’s just on offense. They have aging veterans they will need to replace on the defensive line with the draft picks as well.

  18. The Bengals should grab Henry and get rid of Mixon. With every off-field incident ,the chances of a long suspension will increase.

  19. KC doesn’t have the run blocking needed for Henry.
    ____________________________________________________
    Wrong. The Chiefs finished 3rd last year in run blocking win rate.

  20. The thought of Henry in the Miami backfield along with Jeff Willson, Waddle and the Cheetah might create problems for some defenses.

  21. If the bills want to win, they probably (wait, absolutely) need to make this move, they are on the downward trajectory ESPECIALLY if or when Rodgers inks deal with Jets. If Rodgers goes to Jets, Bills almost overnight become wildcard team. This is a move to save the jobs of McDermott and possibly Beane. Not crazy to say that.

  22. Bengals no. Mixon is a stud. Chiefs no. Pacheco showed out well his rookie yr, they have depth there. Bills…maybe. Eagles no, they are letting Miles Sanders walk. Cap crunch. Bears would make sense, letting Montgomery walk though they do like Herbert a lot. Gotta help Fields. Broncos heck yes, they need to give Russ the play action with solid run game. I thought Falcons heck yes initially…but they just had a 1,000 yard rookie rusher in Allgeier as well as Cordarrelle, so maybe not. Ravens would make all the sense in the world. Need to give Lamar help. Lions have Williams and Swift, no. Chargers have Ekeler, so no. Giants just tagged Saquon, so no.

  23. if the Dolphins care about Tua, they will go get him. Take the burden off him. Make the defense respect the ground game, and you’ll give him more breathing room.

  24. Shanahan yeah likes the multi back approach, and McDaniel came from SF…but SF just traded for CMC, so that went out the window.

  25. “mickeyspillane says:
    March 8, 2023 at 9:22 am
    If the bills want to win, they probably (wait, absolutely) need to make this move, they are on the downward trajectory ESPECIALLY if or when Rodgers inks deal with Jets. If Rodgers goes to Jets, Bills almost overnight become wildcard team. This is a move to save the jobs of McDermott and possibly Beane. Not crazy to say that.”
    _____________________

    I agree and disagree.

    I think it would be a decisive move for the Bills, and could be the piece that finally gets them to the SB. If Henry could stay healthy, they’d be a strong favorite in ’23.

    But without him, I wouldn’t say they’re automatically a WC team if the Jets pick up Rodgers. I do think the Jets become strong contenders for the division in that scenario – but it would come down to the head-to-head matchups. It would be close, and I’d still give the Bills a slight edge.

  26. Derrick Henry has around 1900 career touches, Dending upon whom you listen to in the league, that’s about 400-800 touches shy of (typically) “used up” RB status. I could see the Eagles and Henry coming to terms on a ‘join us to chase a ring’ quest.
    Although, the great ones, like Walter Payton, who never shied from contact, had around 4500 touches.

  27. It wouldn’t be the same mistake as with AJ Brown. Brown was, what 24? Henry’s 29… and a RB.

  28. 3rd at most and I’m not signing him to more than a Barkley would get paid.

    Say it with me now: There’s a lot of tread on those tires…

  29. Thanks to Ezekiel Elliot and others, there is a permanent cap on running back salaries. Yes, they will continue to rise, but they will never catch up with QBs, WRs or even top offensive tackles.

    No one is afraid of what they will have to pay Henry on a new contract, which is also why they will have a hard time getting fair value on a trade, because most teams will probably try and wait out the Titans and sign Henry after the Titans inevitably release him.

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