As NFL teams inevitably slide up and down the draft board, there’s one important factor at the very top of the process that doesn’t get nearly enough attention.
With first-round picks — especially quarterbacks — already under enormous pressure to develop quickly into the franchise quarterback they are expected to become, the maneuverings by teams to get in position to take them only adds to that pressure.
Two years ago, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance wasn’t just the third player taken. He was the player in whom the perpetually close-but-no-cigar 49ers invested, all told, three first-round picks and a third-round pick.
Lance was/is the savior. Lance was/is expected to conduct himself accordingly. Under that standard, Lance was/is a failure, so far.
Lance would still be facing plenty of pressure entering year three, even if the 49ers hadn’t given up so much to get him. The fact that they gave up so much makes it worse — especially since they could have stayed put and gotten a different quarterback.
Now, the Panthers (unless they re-trade the top pick) have guaranteed that whoever they take will be compared, and perhaps not favorably, to quarterbacks taken after him. If the Panthers guess wrong and the Texans or Colts guess right, that’ll be a real problem for the Panthers. And the quarterback they take with the first overall pick will bear the brunt of the external criticism.
It will be interesting to see in coming years whether quarterbacks with a stockpile of NIL cash will be influenced against signing with the team that picked him based on this baked-in pressure that comes not just from being a top-five pick but also becomes enhanced by the investment a team makes to move up. It may not make the difference, but it could (and perhaps should) be a factor in the final decision.